Mike Vasil, Photo by Ed Delany of MMO

Starting with Matt Allan being ranked at 11, our staff has dedicated a more detailed analysis of the top prospects in the New York Mets farm system. At number 9, we take a look at another right-handed starting pitching prospect who slid in the draft but who still possesses a high ceiling.

No. 9 Mike Vasil, RHP

B/T: L/R     Age: 3/19/2000 (22)
Ht: 6’5         Wt: 225 lbs.
Acquired: Drafted in 8th round of 2021 Draft out of the University of Virginia
ETA: 2024  Previous Rank: 27
Stats (St. Lucie): 4-2, 3.53 ERA, 18 G, 17 GS, 71.1 IP, 1.08 WHIP, 4.05 BB/9, 11.8 K/9

Back in 2018, Mike Vasil withdrew his name from the draft despite being a top-50 prospect at the time. The decision proved to be rather costly for him as he struggled at the University of Virginia and became an eighth rounder in 2021.

The good news for the Mets and Vasil is the Mets have been able to undo a lot of the changes that caused Vasil to struggle at UVA. In Eric Logenhagen’s update from over the summer for FanGraphs, he mentioned that Vasil gained several miles per hour on both his fastball and slider. MLB Pipeline’s end of the season update mentioned the Mets have worked on making Vasil’s delivery more athletic, hence the added velocity.

Keith Law of The Athletic recently wrote up the Mets system and had this to say about Vasil: “He can get up to 95-96 mph with high spin and pairs it with a 55 slider and 50 changeup that has late action but not enough deception.”

In terms of the underlying data behind Vasil’s pitch offerings, he seems to get good spin on his pitches. According to Will Hoeffer, he averages close to 2,700 RPMs on his curveball and about 2,500 on his fastball (both four-seamer and sinker).

The Mets started Vasil out in St. Lucie and worked his way to Brooklyn. He unfortunately missed a lot of time this past summer with irritated bone spurs but he did pitch in the Arizona Fall League, a good sign that he is healthy heading into 2023.

The knock on Vasil that the linked rundowns and the stats will tell you is that Vasil needs to work on walking fewer batters. He had 26 walks in 71.1 innings and nine in 15.1 innings in the Arizona Fall League.

For his 2023 outlook, I expect Vasil will go back to A+ and he should be in Binghamton in the earlier part of the season. He really did not have much experience in A+ or did not even get to build up his innings this past season.

The Mets have enough arms to weather the storm between Tylor Megill, David Peterson, and Jose Butto, but I think there is a low chance that Vasil could talk his way into getting a shot should things get that dire, especially in the second half. I think back to Megill getting a shot in what was essentially his second full professional season.

I do think prospect rankings underrate Vasil a little bit because he may not have the potential of someone like Calvin Ziegler or Blade Tidwell but, in reality, he is a few notches in command from being a surefire starter in the big leagues. Of course, it is easier said than done but the Mets and Vasil have already figured out how he could add a good amount of velocity.

He really does not need 60 or even 70 level command to become a starter. I think if and when Vasil makes his MLB debut, he will be seen as a massive surprise but in reality, I think his combination of ceiling and floor make him someone that Mets fans can at least get a little excited about.

Other prospect rankings:

30-26
25-21
20-16
15-12
11. Matt Allan
10. Calvin Ziegler