With free agency starting yesterday, Joe D asked the editors at MMO to each produce their own Mets offseason plan for the 2020 season. We are planning as if we were the GM and had $17.5M to work with. According to our projections, $17.5M is the total the Mets can spend before reaching the luxury tax threshold of $208M.

This financial constraint makes the exercise difficult, and it exemplifies the challenge general manager Brodie Van Wagenen faces this winter. But the Mets can still have a productive offseason by making some sacrifices and being a little creative.

Offseason Plan No.1 – Brian Devine

Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg would be fantastic additions, but they would be well outside the $17.5M budget. That’s why I’m kicking off this series with the plan of targeting one of the next best pitchers: Zack Wheeler.

While Wheeler isn’t a new face, it is vital that the Mets retain him. Wheeler’s 4.7 WAR ranked 14th in the majors, and his 3.48 FIP ranked 16th. His 3.96 ERA doesn’t seem as impressive, but Wheeler was hurt significantly by the Mets’ bottom ranked defense. That’s why the 3.37 FIP that he’s produced over the past two seasons is more reflective of his talent than his ERA.

If the Mets let Wheeler go, they would weaken the team’s greatest strength. In 2019, the Mets’ rotation, highlighted by Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, Marcus Stroman, Steven Matz, and Wheeler, produced the third highest bWAR in the majors. The only two teams ahead of them were the American League champion Houston Astros and the World Series champion Washington Nationals.

Unfortunately, even if the Mets sign Wheeler instead of an ace like Cole, they will still be using most of their budget. But if the Mets are creative with making trades, shedding contracts, and backloading deals, they can keep their rotation intact with Wheeler, while also addressing their other needs.

According to Rotowire, Wheeler is expected to sign a four-year, $80M contract. That type of deal would put the Mets in a tough spot with $20M AAV.

Trade Time 

Dominic Smith has so much promise, but where does he play with Pete Alonso at first base? The Mets have experimented with Smith in left field, but he didn’t look good out there. The Mets have also used Jeff McNeil and J.D. Davis in left, so there’s no clear space for Smith on the 2020 roster. If they can flip him for good value, then the Mets must take that deal.

The rebuilding Orioles would want a young first baseman like Smith, making them a potential match. Baltimore’s Mychal Givens, who is projected to earn $3.2M in 2020 by MLB Trade Rumors, can be an asset for the Mets’ bullpen. While Givens isn’t coming off his best season with a 4.57 ERA, he is a prime rebound candidate. He still saved 11 games with a 1.19 WHIP and an impressive 12.3 K/9. He also owns a career 3.40 ERA over five seasons, and could benefit greatly from moving out of Camden Yards and the vaunted AL East.

Because of Smith’s upside (.881 OPS in 2019), the Mets should still ask for something else. That’s why Austin Hays could be a fit. Even though injuries has caused his stock drop since being ranked inside the MLB’s top 25 prospects, his upside is still considerable. The 24-year-old slashed .309/.374/.574 in 75 plate appearances last season, while impressing with his defense in center field.

It’s possible that the Orioles would require more from the Mets to get the deal done, which is why I included pitching prospect David Peterson. It’s always hard to judge what’s fair with hypothetical trades, especially when it involves unproven players like Hays. You never know how highly he will be valued given his inexperience. While Hays shined in limited MLB action last year, he only posted a .758 OPS in 59 Triple-A games.

But this is a deal that could work for both teams. By the time the Orioles are competitive again, Givens’ contract will have expired – Givens is under two years of team control. And because Smith posted excellent hitting stats over a larger sample than Hays (197 plate appearances for Smith vs. 75 for Hays), he is the safer option for Baltimore and would be a massive upgrade at first over Chris Davis.

Meanwhile, both Givens and Hays will fill two major needs for the Mets: outfield defense and bullpen help. Losing Smith hurts, but the Mets need to sacrifice something in order to improve those two weaknesses.

Acquiring Another Impact Reliever

The Mets can’t stop at adding one reliever. After the bullpen’s disastrous performance in 2019, the Mets need another arm to help them rebound in 2020. A solid option will be Will Harris, a reliever who posted a 1.50 ERA and 0.93 WHIP in 2019.

At 35 years old and coming off a career year, many will view him as a regression candidate. But over his last four years with Houston, he owns a 2.36 ERA and 0.98 WHIP with a 9.5 K/9. There’s no denying the risk with Harris, but if he could pitch anything like he has over the last several seasons, he would be a tremendous addition to the Mets’ pen.

A comparable free agent to Harris might be Adam Ottavino, who landed a three year, $27M contract after a career best 2018 season. Harris is two years older, so his price may be slightly cheaper and may not require a three-year commitment. If the Mets can get him at two years, $16M – or three years, $24M – the Mets will have to make a few cuts to their existing roster to fit him into the plan.

Shedding Contracts

Wilson Ramos is a solid hitting catcher (.768 OPS) and isn’t owed an unreasonable amount of money ($10.2M in 2020). But his contract needs to go in order for this plan to work.

Any team that misses out on Yasmani Grandal, the market’s top catcher, could view Ramos as an alternative. Though he struggled with his defense, Ramos batted .288 with 14 HR’s and 73 RBI in 2019. He is also one year removed from hitting .306 with an .845 OPS. If the Mets can get another team to take on the majority of his contract in a salary dump trade, it will give them more flexibility to add an impactful reliever like Harris.

There’s other contracts the Mets could try to unload, like Jed Lowrie and Jeurys Familia. They will be harder to move given their miserable 2019 seasons, but even if the Mets save just $5M by dealing one of these players, that will leave them just enough room to sign a cheaper replacement for Ramos.

Martin Maldonado fits this description. While he’s a poor hitter (.671 OPS), he ranks as one of the game’s best defensive catchers with the MLB’s third best DRS (33) at catcher over the past three seasons. Last year he signed for $2.5M, and should sign for a similar amount this year. He is an overall downgrade from Ramos, but not as much as you would imagine. Ramos tallied a 1.4 WAR, while Maldonado produced a 0.8 WAR.

Final Tally

Key Additions: Zack Wheeler (4 yrs, 80M), Mychal Givens ($3.2M), Will Harris (2 yrs, $16M). Austin Hays (Pre-arb eligible), Martin Maldonado ($2.5M).

Key Subtractions: Dominic Smith ($0.5M), Wilson Ramos ($9.5M saved), Jed Lowrie ($6M saved), David Peterson (minors)

Total Increase: $17.7M

Total 2020 Payroll: $208.2M