Tom K. asks…
I am not a big Lucas Duda fan mostly because his cold streaks drive me nuts. He has like four hot weeks spread out over a six month season. If David Wright is eventually going to be moved to 1B for health and durability issues, why not do it now and trade Duda for a third baseman, maybe Todd Frazier? Isn’t he on the block?
Connor replies…
First of all, the “Lucas Duda is only good four weeks a year” narrative has gotten old really fast. It’s just not true.
Sure, Duda hit his home runs in bunches this year, but there’s certainly more to hitting than just home runs. The truth is he’s been about as erratic as any other hitter. I’ll show you a stat called tOPS+, a version of OPS+. Essentially, instead of 100 being league average, it’s set to his season total OPS+. For example, a 90 OPS+ means the player hit ten percent worse than he usually does. Here’s Duda’s month by month tOPS+ this year:
That’s four very good months and two bad months. How does that compare with Daniel Murphy, who some fans are ready to anoint as the most consistent, most “pure” (whatever that means) hitter in baseball history?
Isn’t it amazing what perception can do?
Even if you think those lows are bad, they weren’t nearly as bad last season, with his lowest tOPS+ in a month being 70. The fact that Duda went cold in the playoffs was a result of the fact that a) players slump and b) he was facing some of the best pitchers in the game.
Now, on to the main point of the question.
Yes, Wright will likely have to change positions eventually to lessen his back pain. However, if he can hit like he did after coming back in August and September, he is worth keeping in the lineup. Obviously he isn’t going to pt up Duda-like numbers (130-140 wRC+) at the plate, but the chance of Wright getting dealt is nonexistent. It’s Duda that would be traded, and he would have decent trade value, especially since he’s under team control for two more years.
As for Todd Frazier, I actually wrote about the prospect of bringing him to the Mets in June. A Duda-Frazier trade is not going to happen because Joey Votto isn’t going anywhere for the Reds, but separate deals is a possibility.
At the time of my article, Frazier was having an incredible season at the time and through June was batting a robust .287/.348/.614 with 25 home runs on the year. However, from July onward, he hit .225/.270/.386 with ten home runs. So while his final batting line of .255/.309/.498 and 35 homers look pretty good, it was mostly from an outstanding first half.
In 2014, Frazier hit .273/.336/.459 with 29 home runs, which is probably more along the lines of what we can expect from him going forward. He will never even approach the .300/.400/.500 lines David Wright was putting up in his 20s, but the point around this proposal is that whatever is lost on offense will be saved on defense and keeping Wright off the DL.
Defensive metrics rate Frazier has significantly above average. Fangraphs had his defense 9.6 runs above average this past year, 3.4 in 2014, and 11.7 in 2013. He’s averaged six Defensive Runs Saved the last three seasons at third base. For his career, he owns an 8.6 UZR/150. If you assume that Wright’s defense is going to regress to either bad or terrible, bringing in Frazier could mean a difference of 20 or more runs.
Financially, Frazier is entering the second year of a two-year deal, and is set to make $7.5 million next season. After that, he’s up for arbitration one more time before becoming a free agent. Duda is also under team control for two more seasons, only he will make $6.7 million in 2016.
Of course, the big cost with Frazier would not be how much he’s paid, but how much in prospects and talent the Mets would have to give up to get him. According to Jayson Stark, the Reds are looking for “big-league ready young players” for Frazier. His very weak second half will lower his cost, but any Mets-Reds deal would probably start with Zack Wheeler and go from there.
While Wright could likely survive at third base for perhaps another year or two, he’s eventually going to have to move somewhere, and first is his most likely destination. Sandy Alderson may hold off on making the move right now (because again, there’d be a loss of offense) but if the organization and Wright decided that now is the time, Tom’s scenario makes a lot of sense for the Mets.
