Photo Credit: Ed Delany, MMO
Alex asks..
What are the odds we see catching prospect Francisco Alvarez on the opening day roster next season? And yes I know we still have James McCann, but shouldn’t the better player get the job?
Joe D. replies
There’s zero chance Álvarez is on the opening day roster and less than a 50/50 chance we see him at all in 2022.
Still only 19, it would be a travesty if the Mets were to undermine his development by rushing him to the majors before he’s MLB-ready.
Recently ranked as the No. 3 prospect in the High-A East League by Baseball America, Álvarez showed off his outstanding power potential as evidenced by his 24 home runs and 70 RBIs in just 400 plate appearances to go with a .554 slugging percentage and a .941 OPS.
Photo Credit: Ed Delany, MMO
Remarkably, he also showed a patient bat and a good eye at the plate with a 12 percent walk rate.
I usually don’t look at splits with Single-A players, but I was curious and pleasantly surprised to see he batted .343/.443/.747 in 90 plate appearances versus left-handed pitching, which will eventually serve him well in a loaded National League East.
Additionally, I thought this stat really popped out… Álvarez batted .339 with a 1.072 OPS in 66 PA with two outs and runners in scoring position.
Now, I know I just made a case for why Alvarez should be on the opening day roster, but hear me out.
Álvarez will face his biggest test in terms of assessing his readiness next season when he suits up for Double-A Binghamton. This is the level where you separate the contenders from the pretenders and the Mets have had far too many in the latter category over the last 10-15 years. It’s a significant jump, especially for a player in his age 20 season.
With regards to James McCann, let me first remind you I said the Mets would regret that four-year deal last winter. But that’s no reason to toss him to the curb just yet, and there’s still the hope he can keep next season from being a total loss. He still has some value to the team, albeit not anything close to the $32.5 million he is still owed.
At this point I see McCann as a decent stopgap until Álvarez is ready to make his Mets debut.
This also buys some time for Álvarez to improve his game on the defensive side of the ball — never a bad thing for a young backstop.
I hope I’m wrong and Álvarez stuns everyone at Binghamton and forces the Mets to make a move next Summer. It’s happened before with Michael Conforto — although many believe that this did impact his ability to develop fully. We’ll never know.
But hey, the Mets have one of the most exciting prospects in all of baseball and for now, I can live with that. Like the title says, something wicked this way comes. LGM
