Adam asks….
How many games will the Mets win next season? We haven’t made any improvements to last year’s roster and the bullpen might even be worse off. Are we just going to fight five teams for a wild card spot again?
Joe D. replies…
Almost every projection system and even most of the Las Vegas odds makers have the Washington Nationals (10-1) finishing ahead of the New York Mets (18-1). But what the hell do they know?
Last season, the Nationals took the division with 95 wins while the Mets finished 8.0 games back with 87 wins. I’m going to go out on a limb and say that all those analysts, odds makers, and projection systems are all wrong. I fully expect the Mets to win 92 games in 2017, and let me explain why.
After a season decimated by injuries, a season that would see four starting pitchers lost for the year, a season that would have all four infielders log time on the disabled list, and a season which saw their top producing outfielder play the entire second half while hampered by a quad injury, somehow the Mets were still able to secure the top wild card and make the playoffs. Truth be told, many had written the Mets off by mid-July.
I’m actually very confident that we won’t have to endure another season like that one again. I’m very encouraged by all the early reports on Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom and Steven Matz this offseason. They all feel great, but what sticks out the most for me is hearing all three talk like they have a chip on their shoulders. They are all chomping at the bit to get back on the mound in 2017 and put last season behind them. And even if one of them does suffer a setback or isn’t ready to start the season on time, I love what I saw from Robert Gsellman and Seth Lugo during their trials by fire last Summer.
Another thing the Mets have going for them is all the key players entering walk years in 2017. It’s no secret that ballplayers tend to see an uptick in their performance when they are playing for a new contract. We actually witnessed Neil Walker having the best season of his career before succumbing to a back injury. The Mets will have no shortage of players in their walk years in Walker, Lucas Duda, Curtis Granderson; Jose Reyes, Addison Reed, and potentially Asdrubal Cabrera who has a team option. That’s a lot of players chasing a big paycheck. I like that.
Some of you may have seen me talk very highly of Michael Conforto and Josh Smoker in previous articles and quite often in our comment threads. I project huge breakthrough seasons for both these players in 2017. I expect Conforto to bounce back in a big way, easily surpassing the numbers he posted in his rookie season. Look for him to also emerge as a leader in the clubhouse. He has that Curtis Granderson and David Wright gene in his DNA. Smoker, a former first rounder, always had the talent and potential, but saw his career slowed year after year by significant arm woes. That’s all behind him now and this is the year he puts it all together and emerges as a lethal weapon in the Mets bullpen. You read that here first.
Of course, the Mets’ biggest X-Factor and the straw that stirs the drink is left fielder Yoenis Cespedes. He’s the complete package and has found a home he loves in New York – and the fans in New York loves him. Complain about the slow Mets offseason all you want, as I said back in November all I cared about was getting his name on the dotted line and Sandy Alderson did just that. Despite playing hurt for half the season, Cespedes still finished 8th in the MVP voting and won himself a Silver Slugger. In his 1 1/2 seasons with the Mets, they are 106-74 with Cespedes in the starting lineup and 18-23 without him. That’s all you need to know.
So yes, I see this Mets team easily winning over 90 games and with a little luck they can win the NL East for the second time in three seasons. But whether they win the division or not, a third straight trip to the postseason is virtually assured. And to think, I never even mentioned Noah Syndergaard. LGM
