Position: Starting Pitcher
Throws/Bats: Right/Right
Born: August 16th, 1986 (Age 31)
2017 Stats: 3.86 ERA, 118 ERA+, 186.2 IP, 209 K, 1.163 WHIP, 1.3 HR/9, 3.60 K/BB, 3.83 FIP
The Mets need to add starting pitchers this offseason if they are indeed looking to compete in 2018. The high profile name on the market is Yu Darvish of the Dodgers. Davirsh will likely command a lot of money as he should. The 31-year-old Darvish is one of the younger arms on the market in addition to being the best.
For his career, Darvish has amassed a 3.42 ERA over 832.1 innings pitched, with a 126 ERA+, and 1021 strikeouts in that time. Darvish came over from Japan in 2012 and signed a then record breaking deal with Texas. Darvish had a 3.8 bWAR this season and has a 19.4 bWAR over his major league career. Darvish finished second in the AL CY Young balloting in 2013. His 11.04 K/9 from 2012-2017 is the best K/9 by any starting pitcher in that time. Darvish underwent Tommy John Surgery towards the end of 2014 and missed all of 2015.
Darvish has spent a majority of his career in Texas with the Rangers. He was traded this July to the Dodgers for a prospect package headlined by Willie Calhoun. For the Dodgers, Darvish had a 3.44 ERA in 49.2 innings with a 122 ERA+ and saw an uptick in his strikeouts and decrease in walks. It may have been a small sample size in effect but the Dodgers have worked on Darvish being more analytical in his pitching as written in a Fangraphs article by Jeff Sullivan. The Dodgers have worked with Darvish on how he uses his pitches, how he uses his arm slot, how he changes up his pitches.
Darvish’s does walk people, his career BB/9 is 3.32 but that number has been decreasing to his credit. Darvish’s K/9 every year since his debut: 10.4, 11.9, 11.4, 11.8, 10.1. His fastball velocity in 2017 was 94.2, the best of his career. It would not be difficult to see his strikeout numbers increase again since this would be another year removed from Tommy John Surgery.
Darvish pitched two good games (11.1 IP, 8 H, 2 ER, BB, 14 K) earlier in the playoffs, but he struggled mightily lasting only a combined 3.1 innings with a 21.60 ERA in two World Series starts.
Contract
Darvish will have no compensation pick attached to him. Jon Lester and Max Scherzer both got big deals after being free agents around the same age as Darvish. My guess is he will get five or six years and will get a check somewhere between 125-150 million. There are perks to being a big name pitcher on the free agent market.
Reccomendation
He is a great pitcher, who has shown he still has plenty left in the tank. However, given the Mets money situation and their other needs, I think they would be better suited for not using all their chips on Darvish.
