Yasiel Puig

Position: OF
Bats/Throws: R/R
Age: 12/7/1990 (28)

Traditional Stats: .267/.327/.458, 30 2B, 2 3B, 24 HR, 84 RBI, 19 SB, 7 CS
Advanced Stats: 1.3 bWAR, 1.2 fWAR, 100 OPS+, 101 wRC+
Defensive Stats: 0 DRS, -1.2 UZR

After being a part of consecutive pennant winning teams with the Los Angeles Dodgers, two different teams made a trade for Yasiel Puig in order to fulfill their own World Series aspirations. Unfortunately, things did not work out that way for either team.

Part of the reason was despite his being a popular player in both Cincinnati and Cleveland, Puig would regress for the third consecutive year.

Puig has gone from a 3.8 bWAR in 2017 with a steady decline to the 1.3 it was last year. At the plate, he was a 119 OPS+ over 2017 and 2018, and he was just a league average 100 last year. In 2017, Puig was a Gold Glove finalist, and this year, he was a career worst 0 DRS.

Seeing Puig relatively struggle in 2019, you are left to look for a reason. It is possible he was just not comfortable in Cincinnati or Cleveland after spending six years in Los Angeles. Certainly, looking at some of his postseason exploits, he is a player who has typically thrived on the bigger stage.

On the topic of the Dodgers, they have been one of the more analytically driven teams. Perhaps Puig taking a step backwards was a result of his no longer being able to benefit from their information. Of course, this could all have been just one down year.

Digging deeper into the numbers, Puig still has the talent to rebound in 2020.

According to Baseball Savant, Puig was slightly above his career exit velocity and hard hit percentage. He also made some modest strides in his strikeout and walk rates. If you dig deeper for a reason, you’ll see he did pull the ball less, and his HR/FB rate dropped despite his hitting more balls in the air.

Speed wise, Puig was above average flashing essentially the same 28.2 ft/sec he’s had the past few years when he rated as a top defensive right fielder. In fact, he was a step quicker than his near Gold Glove season. The same can be said for his Jump stats which have always been below average.

All told, Puig was the same player in 2019 he had been the previous three seasons with the Dodgers, and yet somehow, the results were different. It’s possible the smaller confines of the Great American Ballpark led to his trying to hit homers more than just looking to hit the ball hard like he did in Dodger Stadium, which has played like a pitcher’s park.

It’s also possible this was just one random down year. Whatever the case, that down year likely cost him some money on the free agent market. This means Puig could prove to be a discount for one team, and maybe this is just who is he now leading to a team overpaying for his services. Overall, Puig probably stands as one of the bigger bust/boon candidates on the free agent market.

Contract

Fangraphs predicted Puig would receive a three-year deal worth $39 million. On the other end of the spectrum, MLB Trade Rumors predicted Puig would sign for a one-year deal worth $8 million. That prediction seems to be more of the consensus with Ken Davidoff of the New York Post predicting he would sign a one-year deal worth $7 million.

Given Puig’s age, it’s very possible he is willing to bet on himself and take a one-year deal with a higher average annual value. Looking at the predicted one year deals, those salaries do seem low at least without real achievable incentives. Realistically speaking, Puig probably signs a one-year deal worth $10+ million if the free agent market does not present the multi-year offer Fangraphs perceives.

Recommendation

Heading into the offseason, the Mets have said they wanted to improve their defense and add a right-handed center fielder. On the latter, that player does not exist, at least on the free agent market. However, moving Puig to right field, putting Michael Conforto back in left, where he is a plus defender, and having Brandon Nimmo in center makes this a better defensive outfield than the Mets have had in years.

Puig could prove to be a real power threat to help balance out what is a heavy left-handed lineup. Moreover, New York is the type of stage where he seems set to thrive, and breaking it down further, Citi Field is a ballpark not too dissimilar than Dodger Stadium.

Overall, given the Mets unlikeliness to surpass the luxury tax, Puig is the exact player this team should be targeting. He is a player in his prime, and he should be attainable on a reasonable one-year deal. He could well prove to outplay that contract. In the end, this isn’t the creative solutions the Mets promised, but it is something better – smart.