Credit: Rich Schultz/Getty Images
Marcus Semien
Throws/Bats: R/R
Date of Birth: 9/17/1990 (Age: 30)
Traditional Stats: 223/.305/.374, 7 HR, 28 runs, 23 RBI
Advanced Stats: .299 wOBA, 91 wRC+, 10.6 BB%, 21.2 K%
Want to find someone who we look back at next offseason and wonder, “How did he get so little?” Look no further than Marcus Semien.
In 2019, Semien finished third in the AL MVP voting by slashing .285/.369/.522 with a .373 wOBA and a 137 wRC+. He managed to do this while simultaneously playing shortstop, baseball’s most valuable position. Semien racked up a 7.6 fWAR and it made him a well-deserved finalist for AL MVP.
Semien, like many others, had issues in 2020. He slashed a rather poor .223/.305/.374 with a 91 wRC+ but still managed to have a 1.2 fWAR due to him being a shortstop.
Despite the poor slash, it might not give a full view of his 2020 season. Craig Edwards at Fangraphs did a deep dive into Semien’s 2020 campaign. Since 2020 was so short, one small slump can drastically change the outlook of a player’s season. Semien struggled coming out of the 2020 season, especially over the first two weeks. He slashed a rather meager .190/.215/.238 but Craig pointed out, “Over his next 46 games, he put up a 133 wRC+ and 2.0 WAR — nearly identical to his great 2019 performance.”
As Craig also pointed out, it is worth mentioning his playoff success. Typically the playoffs do not change a players numbers but 2020 was once again different in that regard. Per Edwards, “His seven playoff games would have upped his wRC+ by 15 points to 106” and his WAR would go from 1.2 to 1.8.
The devil’s advocate in me says, “Well can’t you just pick and choose a player’s different hot streaks if you’re doing that for Semien.” It’s a fair point but I think Semien’s track record of being a MVP caliber player in 2019 gives credence to the notion that his 2020 should not be held against him.
Not to mention, it really seems to be a two-week streak in a strange year that seems to be weighing him down. If it was ever fair to offer a mulligan, I think this might be it. He might not be an MVP candidate again but can he potentially be a four or five-win player over his next contract? Absolutely.
Contract
MLBTradeRumors thinks Semien will take a one-year, prove-it deal while FanGraphs believes that he can secure a four-year deal worth $64 million.
I think a one-year deal makes sense if Semien really believes that he can prove that he is a 130 wRC+ player and can produce similar to his 2019 season. That being said, the infield market in 2021 will be even tougher than it is now, but it might also be a much better market for players. I am more inclined to lean towards the MLBTR prediction and say he’ll take a pillow contract in order to get more money next offseason.
My Take
A one-year deal for Semien? Where do the Mets sign?
If the Mets are signing any more guys to a long-term deal, then I would prefer that they give the money to George Springer. If Semien were to sign with the Mets, he would be playing third base for obvious reasons. He has experience at third in his career as well as time at second. Him moving off shortstop should not be an indictment of his defense. Semien saved 26 runs at shortstop in 2018 and 2019.
Interestingly, those are the only full seasons he had playing with Chapman on the left side of the infield. Having someone like Chapman to his left certainly helps him cover more ground but with the Mets, he would be playing to Francisco Lindor‘s left. He’s managed to grade out well with his ultimate zone rating so he certainly has the range to be good at third base.
