Marcus Semien
Position: 2B/SS
Bats/Throws: R/R
Age: 31 (9/17/1990)
Traditional Stats: (162 G) .265/.334/.538, .873 OPS, 39 2B, 45 HR, 115 RBI
Advanced Stats: 133 OPS+, 131 wRC+, 6.6 WAR, 9.1 BB%, 18.5 K%
Defensive Stats: 11 DRS (2B), 1 DRS (SS), 7.3 UZR
Rundown
The oldest of the big five shortstops on the market, Marcus Semien bet on himself with a one-year deal in Toronto and is hoping to cash in after a huge season north of the border.
Whether Semien found himself in Dunedin, Buffalo, or Toronto, he raked. Now the 31-year-old is in line for his second top-three MVP finish in three seasons.
For the first time since he’s become a full-time major leaguer, Semien moved off of short and into a role at second base, ceding the shortstop position to Bo Bichette. Semien played all 162 games this season, 161 were spent in the field. He posted 11 defensive runs saved in 1,246.1 innings at second and one defensive runs saved in 134 innings at shortstop.
If Semien doesn’t return to Toronto he’s stated he wants to play shortstop again. Semien played well enough at second base this past season to win a Gold Glove. He had +7 outs above average at second and -2 at short in his limited playing time. In the last four seasons, he’s been -13 at shortstop which might force teams to play him at second base anyway.
Still, there are few players in baseball who play as much as Semien. He’s played 536 games the last four seasons. Only three players have played more than him.
At the plate, he’s one of the best at catching up to high speeds. Against pitched thrown 95+ MPH, Semien swings and misses just 16.2% of the time and has a 1.016 OPS against them. Compare that to Javier Baez who swings and misses 40.5% of the time with a .653 OPS against.
He’s a pull hitter and will benefit from a home park with a short left field. In 2021 just three of his 45 home runs went to center or right of it. If Semien played all his game in Houston he would have hit 54 home runs but if he played in Kansas City he would have finished with 27.
Contract
Semien felt spurned by the Athletics after 2020 when they offered him a one-year $12.5 million deal. Instead, he chose a one-year deal worth $18 million in Toronto, essentially the same amount as a qualifying offer.
The Blue Jays offered Semien the qualifying offer for this season but he’s going to decline. Semien is likely going to demand a five-year deal worth north of $100 million. It might be tough to get considering his age but MVP potential is not something to shy away from.
He’s repped by Scott Boras.
Recommendation
Semien is an incredible player but doesn’t have a fit on the Mets, at least not with them paying Robinson Cano.
It’s also not a spot he’d prefer to be with Francisco Lindor holding down shortstop for the next decade.
Semien fits a load of other teams if Toronto cannot re-sign him. The Phillies, Red Sox, Yankees, Tigers, Astros, basically anyone without a top shortstop or big money to a second baseman is a fit for him. He’s going to have suitors lining up but New York won’t be one.
Due to his health and ability to consistently hit line drives, I’d be more than comfortable giving Semien a four or five-year contract. He’s still 87th percentile in sprint speed and has found a home at second base if you can convince him to move over.
I’d bet he’s the Carlos Correa replacement in Houston.
