Position: 3B/SS
Bats/Throws: R/R
Age: July 06, 1992 (26)
Traditional Stats: .297/.367/.382, 188 Hits, 35 2B, 3 3B, 37 HR, 107 RBI, 14 SB
Advanced Stats: 5.7 bWAR, 6.2 fWAR, 146 OPS+, 141 wRC+, .304 BABIP
In the stacked 2018-2019 free-agent class, only one player has won multiple Gold Gloves and garnered MVP votes in the last few years. This player is joining the free agent market at a perfect time: he’s just entering his prime. His name: Manny Machado.
Machado is currently the most polarizing player on the free-agent market. Over the last several campaigns, he’s cemented himself as one of the top third basemen in baseball. However, a series of recent incidents have made teams question how much they should spend on the superstar.
Machado initially burst onto the scene with the Orioles in 2012 as a hyped-up 20-year-old. He impressed in his debut season, quickly making himself a household name with plays such as this one. Throughout the years, he’s emerged as a top-10 infielder in the MLB and has earned a reputation as one of the best defensive players in the Major Leagues.
The 26-year-old seemingly has the entire package. He was one of the main offensive contributors for Orioles over the past six years, slashing a combined .282/.335/.487. And his defense at third base has been otherworldly. He’s lived up to the hype of his Frank Robinson comparison, recording 84 DRS over the last seven years.
Coming off a difficult 2017 campaign where he produced only three percent better than the average hitter, according to wRC+, his free agent stock was spiraling down. However, advanced metrics portrayed his poor year as an outlier. He rebounded with an outstanding 2018 campaign that saw him record career-bests in home runs, OPS, wRC+, RBI’s, K% and BB%. 2018 also marked the fourth consecutive year he appeared in more than 155 games. He also led all MLB shortstops in OBP, hits, and games.
After an excellent first half, he was traded to the Dodgers to cover for the loss of Corey Seager, who spent the entire season recovering from Tommy John Surgery. He filled their shortstop hole effectively as he hit .273/.338/.487 for them down the stretch.
However, 2018 also raised some huge red flags. Coming into the season, he was insistent on playing his natural position, shortstop. Once he started playing there, his once-excellent defense vanished and his DRS decreased by 19 runs.
Although it’s an extremely small sample size, he also failed to produce much in October, posting a measly .227/.278/.394 slash-line. Additionally, he caused controversy in the postseason by acknowledging his lack of hustle and stepping on the back of Brewers’ first baseman Jose Aguilar‘s foot while trying to beat out a ground-ball. His temper’s got him in trouble in the past as he’s initiated quite a few brawls throughout his career.
His position change complicates his free agency. Even though he played a historical third base in the past, he requested that he appear at his natural position, shortstop, in his walk year. The move clearly affected Machado’s once-legendary defense as he posted -18 DRS at his new position. Nevertheless, playing shortstop for an entire season increased his positional versatility, a move that’ll only be financially beneficial for him in free agency.
Contract:
Well, this is the news many Mets fans (and the Wilpons) won’t like. Machado is going to cost a pretty penny. He’s expected to earn a record-breaking contract that’ll be relatively close to Bryce Harper‘s free-agent pact. Both deals will most likely surpass Giancarlo Stanton‘s record $325 million dollar deal.
Depending on how his market shakes out, he’ll receive a contract in the ballpark of $350-$400 million dollars that’ll cover him through his age-36 season(No pun intended). The pact will also likely include multiple opt-outs. This dollar amount takes many small-market teams out of the bidding for his services while some big-market teams are already set at the hot corner. His likely suitors include the Phillies, the Giants, the Yankees, the Cardinals and of course the Mets.
However, one can make the case that Machado will be worth that type of money. He’s only just entering the prime of his career and already has an impressive resume that includes accolades many other players have never earned.
Recommendation:
Teams will need to weigh Machado’s on-the-field production versus his perceived behavioral issues. Nevertheless, a few incidents shouldn’t convince the Mets not to go after him. He’s clearly the best infielder on the market and the Mets are in desperate need of pop in their lineup. Despite recent reports that the Mets are not interested in giving Machado a long-term contract, getting Machado is one of the easiest ways to get back into contention.
On the flip side, a potential Machado deal would stretch the Mets budget to a level where it’s possible they won’t be able to afford any other free agents. Bullpen help, starting pitching depth and a full-time catcher would then be virtually impossible to acquire via free agency.
If Brodie Van Wagenen is committed to using this offseason as a path towards contention, Machado would be the best possible solution. However, if he fails to live up to his lofty contract, it would be a major obstacle in the Mets’ ability to spend in the future.
If the Mets are able to get him for a reasonable price, they should be all-in. However, it’s extremely likely someone is willing to pay more for his services and as a result, he’ll wind up elsewhere in 2019.
