Bats/Throws: R/R

Age: 30 (3/27/1990)

Traditional Stats: 4 GS, 13.1 IP, 6.59 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9, 7.9 K/9

Advanced Stats: 6.12 FIP, 68 ERA+, -0.2 bWAR, 0.0 fWAR

Rundown

After an All-Star season in 2019 where Jake Odorizzi finished Top-10 among all American League starters with 150 innings pitched in ERA (3.51), WHIP (1.21), FIP (3.36), K% (27.1) and fWAR (4.3), Odirizzi decided to bet on himself and take the Twins $17.8 million qualifying offer instead of pursuing a multi-year deal on the open market.

The decision turned out to be a not so great one, as the 30-year-old dealt with multiple injuries during the shortened season. An intercostal strain in summer camp caused Odorizzi to miss the first two weeks of the season. After returning and struggling with an 8.10 ERA in his first 3 starts (10 IP), Odorizzi got hit in the chest by a 103 MPH comebacker from Royals’ Alex Gordon that knocked him out of action for almost a month. He made one final start on September 16th against the White Sox, but was pulled after 3.2 innings of 1-run ball due to a nasty blister on his right middle finger. Funny enough, he threw his final pitch of the season against the newest Met, James McCann, who was still playing for the White Sox at the time.

With just 4 starts and 13.1 IP, there really isn’t much of a sample size at all from this past season to really look at that tells you what kind of pitcher he will be in 2021 and going forward. The chest injury was more bad luck than anything, and that’s what caused him to miss the most time. There is really no concern about durability here since Odorizzi was able to make an average of 30 starts from 2014-2019.

New Mets reliever Trevor May said a big reason why the Mets appealed to him in free agency was because of the chance to work with Jeremy Hefner again, who was an advance scout and assistant pitching coach for the Twins from 2017-2019 before taking the Mets pitching coach job in 2020. Odorizzi also has a strong working relationship with Hefner. Back in June of 2018, Odorizzi was dealing with a rough 4-start stretch where posted an abysmal 8.10 ERA. But after throwing a bullpen session and spending time in the video room with Hefner looking at how he could get back to his traditional delivery in 2016 with Tampa Bay, Odorizzi was able to finish his final 16 starts of 2018 with a solid 4.04 ERA, and built on it in the offseason to earn that 2019 All Star nod.

Contract

Because of the lack of appearances in 2020, teams interested in Odorizzi likely won’t factor that too heavily into their free-agency pursuit of the Illinois native. They should look at the fact that he posted a 3.88 ERA, 4.09 FIP, 106 ERA+, 1.23 WHIP and 8.7 K./9 from ’14-’19 and pay him for exactly what he is, an average mid-rotation starter and the #2 free agent starter behind reigning NL Cy Young, Trevor Bauer.

MLB Trade Rumors predicts that the 2008 first round pick will fetch 3 years/$39 million on the market. But with recent reports from Jim Duquette of MLB Network saying Odorizzi has as many as seven teams after his services, the Mets being one of them, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Odorizzi add a few extra million bucks to that $13M average annual value prediction.

Odorizzi is represented by Bobby Barad of Excel Sports Management. Excel Sports also manages high-profile names like Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke, Jayson Heyward and Masahiro Tanaka.

Recommendation

Odorizzi should absolutely be a priority for the Mets. Team President Sandy Alderson has mentioned the need for rotation arms multiple times during interviews this offseason, and new General Manager Jared Porter kept emphasizing the importance of depth during his introductory press conference.

Odorizzi encapsulates the kind of pitcher this team needs for 2021. He likely won’t challenge a healthy Noah Syndergaard and/or Marcus Stroman for the #2 spot in the rotation behind ace Jacob deGrom, but he will provide quality innings and durability in the middle of the Mets rotation and get the chance work with Hefner again, who was a key to his exceptional 2019 season.

Is the veteran righty the only pitcher the Mets should sign this offseason? Absolutely not. The only guarantees are Jacob deGrom and Marcus Stroman. Noah Syndergaard isn’t expected back until June, Steven Matz is coming off a train-wreck 2020 campaign, and David Peterson only has 49.2 innings of big-league experience under his belt. But Odorizzi should be one of the names Alderson and Porter look to add to the clubhouse before the start of the season.