Opinion: Now Isn’t The Time To Acquire Nolan Arenado

With new owner Steve Cohen officially running the show in Queens, the New York Mets are finally able to operate with some much-needed financial flexibility, meaning they have the capability of taking on one or even two high-priced contracts this offseason.

Even though team president Sandy Alderson would prefer to avoid making any significant trades this winter and solely focus on free agency, he’s also admitted the front office is open to the idea of potentially making a major move in the trade market over the next couple of months. While that doesn’t necessarily mean the organization will pull off a blockbuster trade before next season opens, it does leave the door open for them to potentially acquire a superstar player if the perfect opportunity presents itself.

Speaking of landing an impact player for the right price, it appears the Colorado Rockies have placed third baseman Nolan Arenado on the trade block for the second consecutive offseason, according to Jon Morosi of MLB Network. Adding to this, Morosi also mentioned in his report that the Mets could be a perfect suitor for the five-time All-Star, as they could benefit from adding a reliable defender at the hot corner and could certainly find a way to absorb his expensive salary.

Without question, Alderson and his staff must improve the club’s overall defense this winter, especially at the third base position. That being said, addressing the left side of the infield isn’t their only concern and it’s definitely not at the top of the priority list either, as it’s far more important to make improvements to the starting rotation and in center field.

Considering the Mets are still looking to add multiple impact players, they’d probably be better off focusing their resources on two crucial areas rather than trading for an aging third baseman, who’s scheduled to earn an average of $33.2 million per season through the 2026 campaign and could opt-out of his current deal after next season. Approximately $60.3 million under the $210 million luxury tax, it’d make a lot more sense to wait until next offseason before agreeing to absorb the remainder of the 29-year old’s eight-year, $260 million contract.

From a financial perspective, any potential trade would be extremely difficult to move forward with unless second baseman Robinson Cano and his overpriced salary were included in the package heading to the Rockies. But since his suspension will force him to forfeit his entire $24 million salary in 2021, the Mets wouldn’t gain any financial relief by trading him this winter.

Taking this a step further, if the front office were to take on Arenado’s entire salary ($35 million in 2021), doing so would leave them with just over $25 million before exceeding that $210 million threshold, eliminating any chance of signing both George Springer and Trevor Bauer. Unless Cohen is willing to pay beyond the luxury tax during his first season owning the team, which is certainly possible, completing this type of trade before the 2021 campaign concludes just wouldn’t make any financial sense.

Along with the payroll issues this acquisition would create, the 6-foot-2 third baseman is also coming off one of the worst offensive performances of his entire career, as he witnessed a major decline in both his contact and slugging metrics. To make matters worse, the former second-round pick also struggled to create a ton of hard-contact, which is something he’s accomplished during each of his All-Star campaigns.

Over 48 games in 2020, Arenado earned 201 plate appearances, producing nine doubles, eight home runs, 26 RBIs, .181 ISO (.088 decrease from 2019), .241 BABIP (.071 decrease), .308 wOBA (.084 decrease), .275 xwOBA (.074 decrease), .278 xwOBAcon (.098 decrease), 1.0 fWAR rating, which translates to a measly 2.7 rating over full-season, and a slashing line of .253/.303/.434/.738.

Additionally, the 2018 NL MVP finalist also generated a 7.5% walk rate (1.9% decrease), 15.7% LD rate (3.6% decrease), 5.4% barrel rate (1.4% decrease), 33.7% hard-hit rate (3.9% decrease), 3.0% weak-contact rate (2.0% increase) an 87.8 mph average exit velocity (1.6 mph decrease), along with a 76 wRC+ score (52-point decrease).

In comparison to the rest of the league, the former El Toro HS standout finished with the lowest LD rate, tied for the third-lowest BABIP, tied for the fourth-lowest average exit velocity, the fourth-lowest barrel rate and wRC+ score, the fifth-lowest hard-hit rate, the sixth-lowest OBP, tied for the seventh-lowest wOBA, the 10th-lowest OPS, and his xwOBAcon ranked in the bottom 10 percent of the majors among all qualified third basemen, according to FanGraphs.com.

Though Arenado has historically been an exception from the notion of hitters struggling to produce outside of Coors Field, that wasn’t the case last season, as his results took a turn for the worse while on the road. Despite being recorded over a small sample size, it’s still an aspect that should concern the Mets, especially since he’s entering the second half of his career.

Through his 86 plate appearances away from home in 2020, the right-handed slugger generated just five doubles, one home run, 11 RBIs, .107 ISO, .232 BABIP, .271 wOBA, 10.5% walk rate, 8.1% strikeout rate, 12.9% LD rate, 28.6% hard-hit rate, a 66 wRC+ score, and a slashing line of .227/.302/.333/.636.

From 2015-2019, Arenado earned 1,695 plate appearances away from Coors Field, creating 77 doubles, 91 home runs, 254 RBIs, .237 ISO, .271 BABIP, .349 wOBA, 8.6% walk rate, 16.5% strikeout rate, 19.4% LD rate, 37.3% hard-hit rate, a 117 wRC+ score, along with a slashing line of .269/.333/.506/.838.

Combining these offensive struggles with the fact he’s turning 30-years old next spring, it probably wouldn’t be the worst idea to wait and see if the four-time Silver Slugger award winner will be able to bounce back positively in 2021. Since he was considered the top defensive third baseman last season – led all of his counterparts in OAA (7), DRS (15), UZR (8.5), UZR/150 (15.5), and defensive fWAR (9.3) – returning to his previous form at the plate would definitely help convince the Mets to acquire his services.

So which players would need to be packaged alongside Cano in return for Arenado?

Well, taking on the eight-time Gold Glove award winner’s entire salary would certainly help reduce the amount that management would be forced to send the other way. But in order to avoid surrendering any top prospects, they’d probably need to send either Brandon Nimmo (team control through 2022) or J.D. Davis (team control through 2024) along with a low-level pitching prospect as well.

Based on Arenado’s contract, surrendering someone from the 26-man roster may seem to be an expensive price to pay, but there’s no question the four-time Platinum Glove award winner would be able to help improve the Mets in several different ways. Still, the front office would significantly benefit from exercising some caution here and waiting a little bit longer before attempting to convince him to waive his no-trade clause to join the Mets.

Unless New York can locate an alternative solution for its vacancy at third base this winter, these trade rumors involving Arenado and other high-profile third basemen likely aren’t going away anytime soon. So it appears it’s a matter of when, not if, the organization lands an impact player for the hot corner.