Position: Center Field
Bats/Throws: L/R
Age: 30 (4/19/1990)
Traditional Stats: .283/.364/.450, 55 games, 11 doubles, 7 HR, 22 RBI
Advanced Stats: 1.8 bWAR, 1.4 fWAR, 118 OPS+, 119 wRC+
Defensive Stats: 5 DRS, 1.8 UZR, 7 OAA
Rundown
This time last year, all the talk about acquiring a Red Sox outfielder surrounded a disgruntled Mookie Betts, but now that Betts is in a Dodgers uniform and under contract through 2032, it’s all about impending free-agent Jackie Bradley Jr.
Bradley Jr. is most well known for his stellar defense, and since entering the league in 2013, he has been one of the most reliable center fielders in the game. The Virginia native has posted 48 DRS and 30.8 UZR in 6,754 innings played, which both rank third among all qualified center fielders in baseball. The only two ahead are journeyman speedster Billy Hamilton and Brewers All-Star Lorenzo Cain.
Bradley Jr.’s 7 OAA this past year was tied for best in the majors among outfielders with the White Sox’ Luis Robert. Surprisingly, the 30-year-old has just one gold glove in his career. That was in 2018, where he finished third among AL center fielders with -1 DRS, but beat all others with a 7.4 UZR.
Offensively, the best center fielder in this free agent class is far-and-away Astros’ George Springer, who has a slash-line of .278/.364/.515 since the start of 2017. But once you get past Springer, there isn’t much hitting at the position. In comes Bradley Jr., who is mostly known as a light hitter, but actually had a decent 2020 season with the bat, posting a slash-line of .283/.364/.450 and a 119 wRC+, which was good for fifth among all qualified AL center fielders. Bradley Jr. now has a 102 wRC+ since the start of 2015, which is slightly above league average.
As a left-handed hitter, Bradley Jr. has usually done his best work against righty pitchers throughout his career (.752 OPS in 2318 PA vs RHP, .685 OPS in 963 PA vs LHP), but surprisingly had reverse splits this past season (.900 OPS in 69 PA vs LHP, .776 OPS in 148 PA vs RHP). A lot of that likely had to do with only getting 60 games in during 2020, but nonetheless is still a positive development for the outfielder.
Contract
This will be Bradley Jr.’s first time hitting the free-agent market. The University of South Carolina alum received $11 million for his final year of arbitration this past winter, which led to Boston “actively shopping” Bradley Jr. on the trade market throughout last winter and this year’s August 31st trade deadline, according to Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe. But despite all the talking, new Red Sox Chief Baseball Officer Chaim Bloom decided to hang on to the team’s 2011 supplemental first round pick.
The Mets were actually one of the teams engaged with Boston about trading for Bradley Jr. last offseason, according to Abraham. However, Brodie Van Wagenen and the front-office eventually decided that the price was too steep and turned to Astros outfielder Jake Marisnick, who played in just 16 games with the Orange & Blue this past year thanks to recurring hamstring tightness. Marisnick, who was acquired for prospects Blake Taylor (LHP) and Kennedy Corona (OF), will also be on the open market this offseason.
The Qualifying Offer this winter has been set at $18.9 million, per Evan Drellich of The Athletic. That is up from $17.8 million a year ago, and would be a steep price for Boston to pay for Bradley Jr., who would likely accept it given the unknown circumstances of this year’s market thanks to COVID-19. Jon Heyman of MLB Network has reported that it’s unlikely Bradley Jr. will receive a QO from the Red Sox.
Bradley Jr. is represent by super-agent Scott Boras of Boras Corp., who has gotten many active high-profile clients signed to 9-figure deals like Bryce Harper, Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg and Jose Altuve. Bradley Jr. is highly unlikely to get a contract anywhere near those guys, but he should still be in for a decent payday.
Could Bradley Jr. receive a 5 yr/$70M deal similar to Ian Desmond back in 2016? It’s possible since all it takes is one team to be in love with you, but seems unlikely given the pandemic making some owners think twice about handing out expensive long-term deals. At 30-years-old and being the second best at his position on the open market, the center fielder should be able to land a 3-4 year deal worth at least $14-$15 million annually given what he’s able to do with his glove and being league-average with the bat at a spot in the field where it’s hard to find everyday players who can do both.
Recommendation
If the Mets plan is to go all-out for starting pitching behind Jacob deGrom with the likes of Trevor Bauer and/or Marcus Stroman, then they should supplement those guys with players who can field their position well, which the Mets have struggled to do, especially up-the-middle. Good winning teams are usually found at the top of DRS leaderboards each year, and the last few seasons the Mets can usually be found in the bottom-5 with the likes of tanking teams in Baltimore and Detroit.
Bradley Jr. would arguably be this team’s best defensive outfielder since Juan Lagares, and give the front-office the ability to move Brandon Nimmo to left field most days, which is far-and-away his best position (career 5 DRS). The Mets tied the Dodgers for best offense in baseball this past season with a 122 wRC+ thanks to great years from guys like Nimmo, Michael Conforto, Robinson Cano, Jeff McNeil, and Dominic Smith. So having Bradley Jr. bat somewhere in the 7-9 spots of the lineup seems most ideal for both him and the team.
Getting Bradley Jr. to play center in Queens on a 3-4 year deal likely means one of Nimmo, Smith, or J.D. Davis gets traded due to a logjam in the corner infield/outfield spots. But if the Mets can get a big part of their defense in order and still boast an above-average offense, it could definitely be seen as a win-win situation.
