Carlos Correa

Position: SS
Bats/Throws: R/R
Age: 27 (9/22/94)

Traditional Stats: 148 games, .279/.366/.489, 34 2B, 26 HR, 92 RBI
Advanced Stats: 134 wRC+, 5.8 fWAR, 7.2 bWAR .364 wOBA
Defensive Stats: 3.6 UZR, 12 OAA

Rundown

Carlos Correa is coming off his best season of six and change with the Houston Astros. He was nearly a 6 fWAR player (7.2 bWAR) in 148 games–the second most he’s played in his career. (Health has been Correa’s biggest enemy in his young career–this was just the third time in six-plus season he’s played in at least two-thirds of his team’s regular season games.)

He had an OPS of .851, hit 26 homers and scored over 100 times, all accumulating in a 134 wRC+–the fourth-most of all shortstops in the majors and the second-most among any of the four primary shortstop free agents in baseball this offseason. He also raised his walk rate to a career-high 11.7 percent and a career-low strikeout rate of under 19 percent. His performance earned him down-ballot MVP votes (he finished fifth) and an All-Star game appearance.

The 27-year-old’s season culminated in another playoff appearance, where he broke a tie in the seventh inning of Game 1 of the ALCS. This was the point-at-wrist game.

He cooled off after, but it highlighted the shortstop’s clutch postseason play. At his young age, Correa has 334 postseason at-bats in 79 games (that’s more than all Mets players combined) with an .849 OPS–nearly identical to his career .837 career OPS. Correa will being a bevy of postseason experience to whatever team he ends up on.

Correa also had one of his best defensive seasons by just about every defensive metric, including UZR, defensive runs saved and outs above average. Mark Simon from SportsInfoSolutions points out that he posted 20 Fielding Bible runs saved (a similar stat to DRS) and the highest defensive WAR among shortstops. This all earned him his first Gold Glove award.

Correa, who has a tall frame and average speed (26.9 feet per second in 2021), has been able to survive playing short in his early career, so having a positive defensive season across the board just before free agency may give teams confidence the 27-year-old can stick at short for years to come.

Contract

Given his age (27) and position (shortstop, one of the more valuable in baseball), Correa will likely get paid the most overall money in all of free agency this offseason. None of the other shortstops are younger, none were as productive as he’s been, and he plus defensive year may lend one to think he’ll be able to stick at the position for at least a chunk of a long-term contract.

Nearly every salary projection brings Correa in at north of $300 million, and he’ll get it. At this point it’s a matter of whether or not he’ll top Francisco Lindor‘s $341 million from last offseason.

Recommendation

The Mets should absolutely be talking with Carlos Correa’s representation, qualifying offer and his position be damned. Obviously in the case of signing with the Mets, Correa would be playing second or third base given Lindor’s superior defensive skills, thus if he makes $300 million, he’d be a well-overpaid second of third baseman.

Going after Correa is really more process over actually signing him. The Mets at this point should be going after whatever top players are on the market, regardless over position. If they can sign him, great. If he prefers to stay at shortstop and sign somewhere else, that’s fine, too, but the Mets should really make him think about it. Correa is better than J.D. Davis, Brett Baty, Matt Chapman (especially with prospect cost), and basically any other option to play the position.

If I had to guess, Correa will sign with someone like the Detroit Tigers or Philadelphia Phillies–two teams looking desperately for shortstops–but that doesn’t mean the Mets shouldn’t try.