Brandon Kintzler, Relief Pitcher

Bats/Throws: Right/Right
Age: August 1, 1984 (35)

Traditional Stats: 62 G, 57 IP, 2.68 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 48 K, 3.69 K/BB, 0.8 HR/9
Advanced Stats: 0.9 fWAR, 1.7 bWAR, 3.56 FIP, 166 ERA+, .236 XBA, .387 XSLG, .286 XWOBA, 42% hard-hit rate

Brandon Kintzler‘s 10-year MLB career has been a bit of a rollercoaster ride, complete with thrilling heights and devastating falls.

After bouncing between Milwaukee and the minor leagues over his first three seasons to mediocre results (2010 to 2012; 4.42 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 38.2 innings/30 appearances), the Nevada product enjoyed a breakout campaign in 2013.

Over 71 appearances (77 innings) for the Brewers that season, the right-hander spun a 2.69 ERA (2.54 FIP) with 58 strikeouts, 16 walks, and 1.07 WHIP, and experienced similar success in 2014 (3.24 ERA over 58.1 IP).

Following a lost season in 2015 (left patella tendinitis; seven appearances, seven innings, five earned runs allowed), Kintzler signed a minor league deal with the Minnesota Twins ahead of the 2016 season.

A 3.15 ERA over 54 appearances secured him the Twinkies’ closer job midway through 2016, evicting temporary resident Kevin Jepsen from the role, and a 2.78 ERA over his first 45 games in 2017 earned him his first All-Star nod, as well as a one-way ticket to Washington, DC at the trade deadline a couple of weeks later.

His 3.46 ERA down the stretch for the Nats that season (27 appearances) afforded him a two-year, $10 million deal to return to Washington that offseason, which he accepted, but did not play out in the nation’s capital.

The Nationals — 52-53, 5.5 games back of the NL East-leading Phillies at the time — flipped Kintzler (3.59 ERA, 31 K, 13 BB over 45 games) to the Cubs at the 2018 trade deadline for minor-leaguer Jhon Romero (now 24, pitched to a 6.59 ERA over nine games for Advanced-A Potomac last season), catching the veteran righty off-guard.

Kintzler struggled over the remainder of the 2018 season, allowing 14 earned runs over 18 innings pitched with nine walks, but turned things around considerably for the Cubbies last season.

Over 62 appearances in 2019 (57 innings), Kintzler owned a 2.68 ERA (3.56 FIP) with 48 strikeouts, 13 walks, and 1.02 WHIP. That’s all well and good. Though, a career-high 6.8% barrel rate and 42% hard-hit rate (bottom eight percent of the league, per Statcast) induce slight wariness.

Mostly a sinker-changeup pitcher (68.5 percent and 17.5 percent, respectively), Kintzler found success with both of his primary pitches last season (.231 BAA, .357 SLGA, .273 WOBAA versus sinker; .170 BAA, .319 SLGA, .191 WOBAA versus changeup).

Though, his slider — used just 10.2 percent of the time in 2019 — has the makeup of quite the putaway pitch if he were to go to that well a bit more often. Over 87 offerings (yes, a very small sample) Kintzler’s slide-piece induced a 43.8% whiff rate. That appears to be a weapon.

Contract

Having just played out a two-year, $10 million deal, complete with a sub-3.00 ERA last season, it’s plausible Kintzler could receive a multi-year commitment with a slight bump in salary this time.

Kintzler had an impressive 54.7% groundball rate (20th among qualified MLB relievers last season) and is extremely effective against left-handers (.163/.247/.275 slash against last season), which should bode well during the inaugural run of MLB’s three-batter rule.

Recommendation

As much as the Mets need another quality arm to fill out their talented bullpen, Kintzler’s price tag may fall out of New York’s budget. Roster Resource currently has the Mets’ luxury tax payroll at $207.5 million, just shy of the 2020 competitive balance tax threshold of $208 million.

The offseason is far from over and general manager Brodie Van Wagenen still has time to shed, say, Jed Lowrie‘s contract in order to free up some cash. But unless that’s the case or Kintzler is willing to heavily backload his contract (both realistic possibilities, mind you), the Mets may have to look elsewhere for relief depth.