An MMO Fan Shot by Austin Smith
At the beginning of the offseason, we were PRAYING to have a payroll around $120 million or at least enough to upgrade the roster as needed and give us a lineup that would compete with the Nationals and complement our rotation. Wrong. With the moves we have made, and Yoenis Cespedes of course falling into our laps because of his strong desire to remain in NY, our payroll is up to a surprising $140 million.
Let that set in for a second. The cheapskate Wilpons, who for years have been pinching every penny they can, stepped up and went all-out for Cespedes. Of course it probably helped that there was tons of pressure from the media and fan base, but still, you have to tip your hat to them.
So most of us fans, myself included, expected us to be done after Alejandro De Aza signing, but this Cespedes deal changes everything. When you plug him in along with the additions of Neil Walker, Asdrubal Cabrera, Antonio Bastardo and even bringing back fan favorite Bartolo Colon, wow.
All these moves truly puts us among the top three teams in the NL in my personal opinion, and certainly the best team in the NL East. Also, as important as the Cespedes contract is for us, the big takeaway is we kept him away from the Nationals. That’s huge.
I expect that Cespedes will likely opt-out after the first year and give us a comp pick, but if he doesn’t all the better. He’ll replace Curtis Granderson after next season, and hopefully Brandon Nimmo or Juan Lagares could produce at a well enough level to warrant the center field job and give us an outfield of Michael Conforto in LF, Nimmo or Lagares in CF, and Cespedes in RF. I’ll take it.
Plus, I think we have enough depth in the minors to keep the success we have going for at least another 5-10 years. Our young starting pitchers are being paid pennies for the next 2-4 years comparable to the market rate for their performance levels.
After that, Cespedes’ contract will be off the books, and Lucas Duda will be gone in favor of Dominic Smith in a year or two, so I think we will have the financial flexibility to sign at least three of our young guns and maybe even four if any of them give us a hometown discount. And why wouldn’t they, our New York Mets are a hot destination right now.
Okay, enough about the future. Lets look at where we stand for the 2016 season!
Starting Rotation
- Matt Harvey
- Jacob deGrom
- Noah Syndergaard
- Steven Matz
- Zack Wheeler and Bartolo Colon
I see Harvey and deGrom both taking steps forward, but I honestly believe Syndergaard will take the biggest leap of them all. I truly think he is a dark horse for Cy Young (call me crazy). Matz will be an above average southpaw, so long as he can stay healthy. Colon will give us at least average performance until Wheeler is ready. But more than that his leadership, mentoring, popularity, antics, and willingness to swing to the bullpen when needed makes him so valuable. Hopefully Wheeler can be back by mid-June, and I’d be happy if he had a 4.00 ERA, but much happier at around a 3.70. This is baseball’s best rotation.
Bullpen
- Jeurys Familia – Closer
- Antonio Bastardo -Setup
- Addison Reed – Setup
- Jerry Blevins – Lefty Specialist
- Hansel Robles – Middle Reliever
- Erik Goeddel – Middle Reliever
- Verrett/Montero/Colon – Long Reliever/Swing man (Whoever wins out ST)
Familia will be Familia, top 5 closer in baseball, if he perfects his new pitches he’ll be top 2. Edgin could become of the best LH Relievers in baseball when healthy if you ask me. He dominates LHH and RHH just the same, he’s expected back in May. Love the Bastardo signing, lefty who gets out both LH/RH hitters with a consistent ERA under 3, and can be a solid setup man. Reed had a solid month with the Mets, but I wasn’t too sure he was worth the $6M tender. But after looking at the FA relievers and their price tags, I’m okay with it. Blevins is an absolutely perfect lefty specialist, though he only faced 15 batters last year before breaking his arm .He retired all 15 and has a track record of getting out lefties. Robles is a bit wild, but him and Goeddel should win roles in ST. Both have question marks and big upside, but I think Robles an become a beast. I also love his competitiveness. Also, should some guys flake out, we have some nice backups in Smoker, Morris, etc.
Starting Lineup
- Curtis Granderson – RF
- Neil Walker – 2B
- Yoenis Cespedes – CF
- Lucas Duda – 1B
- David Wright – 3B
- Travis d’Arnaud – C
- Michael Conforto – LF
- Asdrubal Cabrera – SS
I expect Grandy to produce similar to last year, maybe a tad worse because of age, and he did over perform a little last season. Walker, I expect similar to Murphy numbers with more power vs RHP, but he doesn’t hit LHP very well so vs LHP I’d plug Flores in at 2B because he is a much better defender at 2B than SS, and mashes lefties.
Cespedes won’t do what he did in his two months with us last year, but I do expect him to carry our lineup and produce a .285/.325/.580 line with 30-35 home runs, and better defense in CF than people give him credit for.
People say Duda is inconsistent, but he’s been one of the most consistent first basemen in the majors over the last three years. People say he couldn’t hit lefties (he couldn’t), so he battled and actually hit lefties better than righties in 2015. Just not as many homers, but he evens it out with gap to gap doubles.
We all know Wright is a question mark, but if we can get 125 games from him with the same kind of production he had last season, we are going to be fine. If his injuries catch up, well then we have Flores and Cabrera to take over at third base instead of Campbell and Muno.
D’Arnaud will hopefully stay healthy and produce the way he’s shown he can. I expect 120+ games, .270/.350/.500, and 20-23 homers, not to mention how solid a defensive catcher he is, despite his weak arm.
Conforto will be hitting against RHP which is often, and he’ll get more AB against LHP. He has the look and feel of a future All Star. Lagares, who mashes lefties, should get plenty of work as a defensive replacement and part of a platoon.
Bench
- Wilmer Flores – Super Utility
- Ruben Tejada – SS/2B/3B
- Juan Lagares – CF
- Alejandro De Aza – OF
- Kevin Plawecki – C
I think De Aza is a fantastic signing. Didn’t think so before the Cespedes deal, but now knowing he’s a 4/5 outfielder, he’s an excellent asset. A .275 career hitter, not a bad defender, speedy, and a .800 OPS against RHP. Having that on the bench is huge, especially in the playoffs. Our entire bench could be starters on other teams. I think that says enough about how good our team looks right now.
Final Thought
An absolutely A+ offseason by Sandy Alderson, and respect to the Wilpons for allowing him to pull the trigger on all of these upgrades especially Cespedes. I am ready to enjoy the Mets dominate the 2016 season from wire to wire. I love everything about this team. I haven’t been this excited to begin a new season in quite some time. Boy, does it feel great to be a Mets fan right now. LGM
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This Fan Shot was contributed by Austin Smith (@NotDwright). Have something you want to say about the Mets? Share your opinions with over 30,000 Met fans who read this site daily. Send your Fan Shot to [email protected]. Or ask us about becoming a regular contributor.
