An MMO Fan Shot by Avi Gelboim
Lost in the excitement of the Yoenis Cespedes signing has been the impact on former fan favorite and gold glove center fielder Juan Lagares.
Lagares, who is entering his age-27 season, is under team control for the next four years (2016 – 2019) at an affordable $23 million with a fifth year team option (2020) for $9.5 million or a $500 K buyout.
During 2013-2014 Lagares had arguably the greatest two year defensive span in Mets history, combining for an incredible 40.1 UZR and 54 Defensive Runs Saved over just 220 games. In 2014 Lagares also took a step forward offensively, showing a knack for contact with a .281 AVG, swiping 13 bases, and beating up LHP to the tune of an .875 OPS. Lagares entered last season as the Mets undisputed everyday center fielder and was widely considered to be a star on the rise.
But 2015 was not kind to Juan. He regressed offensively, posting a weak .647 OPS while walking just 16 times over 465 plate appearances. More surprising was his defensive regression, which resulted in a mediocre 3.5 UZR and 2 Defensive Runs Saved over 139 games. Rumors abounded of a serious elbow injury and even possible Tommy John surgery.
A bad elbow explains Lagares’ reduced arm strength (just 3 OF assists), but not the numerous fly balls he perplexingly “just missed” that Mets fans had grown so accustomed to him catching over the previous two seasons. In one year, Lagares went from an all-world defensive CF to a barely-above-average defensive CF. Which version of Lagares we can expect in 2016 remains an open question.
When the Mets called up rookie Michael Conforto and traded for Cespedes last season in late July, Lagares was relegated to a platoon/defensive replacement role. Specifically, throughout August, September, and (a magical) October and early November, manager Terry Collins consistently platooned Conforto with Lagares, starting Conforto in LF and Cespedes in CF against RHP while sliding Cespedes to LF and starting Lagares in CF against LHP.
Collins also regularly brought Lagares into CF as a late inning defensive replacement (typically in games the Mets were winning), sometimes pinch hitting Lagares against a LHP and then keeping him in for defense (again sliding Cespedes over to LF). In all of these situations, Conforto was the OF who was removed (from the batting order and/or the defensive field) to make room for Lagares, with Cespedes and RF Curtis Granderson always remaining in the game.
So the original question remains: How will the Mets use Lagares in 2016? Until Cespedes was signed last week, Lagares was ticketed for another platoon/defensive replacement role, this time with new acquisition Alejandro De Aza. The Cespedes signing has (to the great relief of Mets fans everywhere) relegated De Aza to a 5th OF role and (at first glance) placed Lagares squarely back in the same CF/LF threesome with Cespedes and Conforto that he occupied late last season. Over a full season, such usage could result in 400+ plate appearances and 130+ games for Lagares, significant totals for a platoon player.
But one factor has changed between the 2015 World Series and Opening Day 2016: the Mets’ willingness to limit their emerging young star, Conforto, to a continued platoon role. Last season, with the Mets in a playoff hunt and Conforto fresh to the big leagues, it made sense for Collins to give Conforto’s ABs against LHP to Lagares.
But with a new season upon us, it seems likely the Mets will give Conforto the chance to play every day, including against LHP. Conforto had only 15 plate appearances against LHP in his debut MLB season. But he hit LHP quite well (.904 OPS) at AA prior to his call up and has the type of sweet swing that could translate to a career of productive ABs against LHP (as evidenced by his World Series Game 4 HR against Royals LHP Danny Duffy).
So if Conforto is slated to start every day, including against LHP, where does that leave Lagares? The answer: Lagares will likely enter the 2016 season primarily as a PH and late inning defensive replacement. But even such usage could be more limited than it was last season. In the 7th inning of a 2-2 game with Conforto coming to bat against a LHP, will Collins want to PH Lagares for Conforto? Quite possibly not.
Even the logic behind using Lagares as a late inning defensive replacement was somewhat eroded by Conforto’s surprisingly strong defense (2015: 7.5 UZR and 9 Defensive Runs Saved over just 50 games). If not for the great defensive benefit of shifting Cespedes from CF (2015: -3.2 UZR and -4 Defensive Runs Saved over 40 games) to LF (2015: 18.8 UZR and 15 Defensive Runs Saved over 134 games), Lagares’ role as a late inning defensive replacement would also be in jeopardy. As it stands, Conforto will continue to get pulled from the late innings of games not so much due to his LF defense, but due to Cespedes’ CF defense.
One other question is worth asking in considering how the Mets will use Lagares in 2016: Who plays RF when Granderson is out of the lineup? Curtis had an all-around fantastic 2015, with one exception: his .558 OPS vs LHP over 143 plate appearances. Should Granderson regress somewhat in 2016 (likely as he enters his age-35 season) and continue to struggle against LHP (also likely given his career .696 OPS vs LHP), Collins may want to sit him vs LHP. At a minimum Curtis will require the occasional day off, and he will almost certainly get those days off against LH starters. So who plays RF on those days? Probably Lagares?
Although Cespedes’ monster arm and success as a gold glove corner outfielder seemingly suit him perfectly for RF, he (reportedly?) doesn’t like the position. He has never played a single inning in RF over 490 career games, and when he played for the Red Sox rumors circulated of friction between him and the Sox over the manager’s desire to play him in RF. In two games last season, Collins chose to insert Lagares into RF rather then force Cespedes to play the position. The same could hold true this season.
Barring an injury to Cespedes, Conforto, or Granderson, Juan Lagares’ role on the 2016 New York Mets might be even more limited than it was last season, due primarily to Conforto’s likely emergence as an every day player. With De Aza in the fold as a capable backup OF and Lagares under a team-friendly contract, might Sandy Alderson seek to trade Lagares, possibly for relief pitching and/or prospects? Or will Lagares revert to 2014 form and force himself back into the Mets lineup?
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This Fan Shot was contributed by Avi Gelboim. Have something you want to say about the Mets? Share your opinions with over 30,000 Met fans who read this site daily. Send your Fan Shot to [email protected]. Or ask us about becoming a regular contributor.
