An MMO Fan Shot by @kengiffyjr
The buzz surrounding the Mets is at an all-time high and I have to tell you – this is fun. Nerve-racking, but fun. I’ve gone through the emotions for each one of these trade rumors. We can’t possibly trade Noah! Anyone but Kelenic! Wait, no way they deal Nimmo, right?
My immediate instinct with all these rumors is to always crunch the numbers. Would these moves, coupled by other moves make the Mets better as a whole? We immediately race to check the stats, the contracts, the Steamer projections. One of my favorite articles of the past year was a Fangraphs post on Prospect Value, something I’ve dug in on in the past for MMO. It aimed to put $ Values on prospect levels to help determine fair trade proposals.
Which brings us to the latest rumor – J.T. Realmuto. In a subsequent post, Fangraphs already gave us a framework of what the best catcher in the game’s asset value was:
Projected Remaining WAR x Million $ Per WAR figure – Approximate Remaining Salary = Asset Value
(Low 4.0’s x 2) x ($9 million) – ($15 million) = ($70 million)
There’s lots of other factors of course, and the perceived projected WAR is very subjective while the Remaining Salary especially when dealing with arbitration figures is very approximate, but this final Asset Value figure at least gives a gauge. Now in the Fangraphs article, there are lots of other teams mentioned with proposed packages on what it would take…the Mets…were not mentioned. But now there’s lots of smoke around this potential deal, which is a perfect time to dig in on what the Mets have to offer for a fair deal back.
I could go on and on about subsequent moves that the Mets could make either after or just prioritizing other moves instead of this deal: Just pay for Grandal, if we trade Nimmo we could then get Pollock or even dare I say (insert praying hands emoji) Harper!
But this post is purely about this trade only, and what a fair deal would and should be. Before we dive into the list of players to calculate their respective asset values, let’s quickly touch upon leverage.
Leverage – Who has it?
The Case For The Mets
The Marlins have to trade him. His value is dropping as the years go on with only 2 years left on his deal.
The main suitors are snatching up catchers left and right. The Nats signed Suzuki and traded for Gomes. The Astros just signed Robinson Chirinos. Braves brought back Briann McCann.
The Catching market is still ripe with talent, both in free agency and on the trade block. (Yasmani Grandal, Wilson Ramos, Fransisco Cervelli, etc.)
Many playoff teams and World Series winners (ie the Red Sox this past year) have gotten by with just adequate catchers.
The Case For The Marlins
The Mets need to keep pace with the craziness that is the NL East.
The Mets need to upgrade at catcher, and J.T. Realmuto is the best in the game.
While suitors technically have signed catchers, the Chirinos’ and the McCann’s of the world doesn’t necessarily signal that they’re out on Realmuto.
The thought that the Mets will have to overpay to get him since they’re in the same division.
So let’s get to it. Who are the Mets’ pieces and what are their values? The range we’re looking for is let’s say:
$70 – $80 Million
MLB Assets
Brandon Nimmo – ah, Brandon. If only I could put a value on his smile and his heart. Would be a devastating loss. All depends on whether you think his 2018 was his peak and he comes back to earth a little or whether you think
this dominance will continue. One could argue that we already saw his ceiling but he has an incredibly high floor.
2018 WAR – 4.5
2019 Steamer Projections WAR – 2.4
Projected Remaining WAR for rest of Contract – 10.0
Approximate Remaining Salary – $18 million
Approximate Asset Value – $72 million
Michael Conforto – Michael has 3 years left, which will imo will not be anywhere near the Marlins window for contention, especially since they would be unlikely to extend the Boras client. So Conforto doesn’t make sense to me for this deal.
2018 WAR – 3.0
2019 Steamer Projections WAR – 3.2
Projected Remaining WAR for rest of Contract – 9.6
Approximate Remaining Salary – $21 million
Approximate Asset Value – $65 million
Amed Rosario – Amed is the toughest to gauge. He could legitimately turn into a monster, and we’ve seen flashes of it in the 2nd half next year. But what if he’s Dansby Swanson (who the jury is still out on as well)? Or JP Crawford? He’s probably the one I personally most covet, and I don’t want to see him reach his potential anywhere else. His projected remaining WAR in this exercise is very conservative.
2018 WAR – 1.5
2019 Steamer Projections WAR – 2.1
Projected Remaining WAR for rest of Contract – 10.5
Approximate Remaining Salary – $19 million
Approximate Asset Value – $76 million
Jeff McNeil – Jeff burst onto the scene last year and has now become a fan favorite. Projections below are based on if he was a starting 2nd baseman, before the Cano/Diaz trade. Another one where the question remains whether last year was the real deal…we’ll give him a lower super sub 1.5 per year projected WAR here as a result of this question.
2018 WAR – 2.7
2019 Steamer Projections WAR – 3.0 as starter, 1.5 as super-sub
Projected Remaining WAR for rest of Contract – 9.0
Approximate Remaining Salary – $20 million
Approximate Asset Value – $61 million
Steven Matz – I’m excluding Noah because of the recent BVW comments and the fact that again, I can’t see the Marlins trading for someone with only 3 years left or less on their contract. Matz has 4. This is another unlikely one, as Matz would essentially be a smaller piece to a potential trade, not the centerpiece.
2018 WAR – 0.9
2019 Steamer Projections WAR – 1.9
Projected Remaining WAR for rest of Contract – 5.7
Approximate Remaining Salary – $16 million
Approximate Asset Value – $35 million
Dominic Smith – Yup, I’m including Dom. There are still those high on him (Keith Law appears to be), and just last year at this time he had a ZIPS projection of a 3. Now it’s nearly impossible to determine his value with his status with the Mets, but let’s pretend he’s around a 0.7 with another team.
2018 WAR – Negative 0.5
2019 Steamer Projections WAR – 0.0
Projected Remaining WAR for rest of Contract – 3.5
Approximate Remaining Salary – $13 million
Approximate Asset Value – $18 million
Photo: Ed Delany, MMO
Prospects
A quick note: This is another very subjective section, as I’m using Fangraphs’ FV. These are fluid and seem to undervalue the younger guys a little bit. Plus they of course could differ from other Prospect gurus like our very own Michael Mayer.
Top Tier (50 and above) – Kelenic was in this group as well at a 50FV, $21 million value. I’d personally put Vientos in this tier too.
Andres Gimenez – 55 FV – $42 million
Peter Alonso – 50 FV – $25 million
Ronny Mauricio – 50 FV – $19 million
David Peterson – 50 FV – $11 million
Next Tier (35+ – 45+)
Mark Vientos – 45+ FV – around $10 million
Franklyn Kilome – 45+ FV – around $5 million (out with TJ)
Desmond Lindsay – 45 FV – around $5 million
Anthony Kay – 40+ FV – around $2-3 million
Thomas Szapucki – 40+ FV – around $2-3 million
Simeon Woods-Richardson – 40 FV – around $1-2 million
Shervyen Newton – 35+ FV – around $1-2 million
So What’s A Fair Trade?
Let’s play the game and say the Marlins are focusing on around $75-$80 million of value, here are some trades that would be deemed “fair” for Realmuto.
TRADE 1
Brandon Nimmo and Thomas Szapucki ($75 million of value)
TRADE 2
Amed Rosario and Simeon Woods-Richardson ($78 million of value)
TRADE 3
Andres Gimenez and Steven Matz ($77 million of value)
TRADE 4
Jeff McNeil and Ronny Mauricio ($80 million of value)
TRADE 5
Andres Gimenez, Peter Alonso, David Peterson ($78 million of value)
This Fan Shot was written and contributed by MMO community member and die-hard Mets fan @kengiffyjr. Have something you want to say about the Mets? Send your article to [email protected] or use this Contact Form. Or ask us about becoming a regular contributor.
