MMO Fan Shot by Greg Jones
Let’s take a pragmatic look at the Mets 2022 rotation as it is set today, compared to 2021.
The 2021 Mets had 19 pitchers start games. To put that in perspective, here are the teams that have started more since the earth cooled and the continents formed:
- 1915 AL Philadelphia Athletics 24
- 2019 AL Toronto Blue Jays 21
- 1967 NL New York Mets 20
- 1890 NL Pittsburg Alleghenys 20
Let’s dispense with the 1890 Alleghenys and the 1915 Athletics, because who the hell knows what went on there. But since the expansion era began in 1962, there have been almost 4,000 team seasons, and only two started more pitchers than the 2021 New York Mets. This, mind you, was in the unique setting of 7-inning games and the man-on-second extra innings travesty taking some pressure off staffs.
Why did this happen with the 2021 Mets, and what lessons can be learned for 2022?
Well, injuries, of course. Jacob deGrom, Carlos Carrasco, David Peterson, all gave half a season, second tier Joey Luchesi went down with TJ, and Noah Syndergaard, penciled in for the second half, only delivered a few (two) garbage time innings in two starts.
Sorting down to nine starts or more among the Mets starting pitchers in 2021:
- Marcus Stroman – 33
- Taijuan Walker – 29
- Tylor Megill – 18
- Jacob deGrom – 15
- David Peterson – 15
- Rich Hill – 12
- Carlos Carrasco – 12
Hill and Stroman are, of course, gone for 2022. Let’s take a cold-hard businessman’s look at the six Mets under contract for the 2022 rotation, focusing on their performance in the second half of 2021.
Jacob deGrom: The best pitcher in baseball, on his way in 2021 to the greatest season by a pitcher in baseball history. Suffered five separate injuries, was shut down in July after 15 starts.
Max Scherzer: First ballot Hall-of-Famer. Made an encouraging 30 starts in 2021 under contract with the Nats and the playoff-bound Dodgers. However, seemed to fade down the stretch. In the last two games of the regular season, Max surrendered five earned runs in each game. After several strong games in the postseason, and a questionable relief appearance, he spit the bit in the NLCS, diagnosed with a “dead arm.” The Dodgers lost the NLCS in six.
Carlos Carrasco: Came over in the Lindor trade to great fanfare. But a series of injuries has seemed to sap his capabilities as a dependable starter. After missing the first half, Carlos delivered 12 starts for the Mets to a 1-5, 6.04 ERA.
So the Mets, as constructed so far, are depending on Jake deGrom (34), Max Scherzer (37) and Carlos Carrasco (35) to anchor their rotation in 2022. They combined for 57 starts in 2021 (perspective, remember, Stroman had 33 starts). Let’s talk about age and starting pitching.
To start 30 games in the majors in a season requires remarkable and rare stamina and, generally, youth. How many pitchers Age 34 and up have had seasons of 30 or more starts since 2014?
Now, consider all the possible candidates for that. Throwing out 2020, seven seasons, let’s say for discussion purposes we count the five man rotation on Opening Day. That is seven seasons times 30 teams times five pitchers. That is 1,050 pitchers.
How many have thrown 30 or more starts multiple times? One. The good news is, it was Max Scherzer, twice, at age 34 and 36. The bad news is, look at those odds against the three Mets at the top of our rotation all doing it.
Let’s avert our eyes and move on from that to the other three current 2022 Mets rotation candidates.
Taijuan Walker: At a glance, age-wise, Taijuan is the most promising candidate for a full 2022 season, which is alarming. At age 28, Taijuan delivered 29 starts for the Mets and was elected to his first All-Star team after a red hot start. However, Taijuan dropped to a disturbing 0-8, 7.13 ERA in the second half. Perhaps this was due to rebuilding arm strength after Tommy John surgery in April 2018, although that feels like a long time ago, no? Or perhaps it is related to changing his pitch repertoire after the resin ball crackdown in mid-June (6-2, 2.35 ERA before, 1-9, 6.25 ERA after) Let’s hope it was the tired arm.
David Peterson: 25 career starts, 116.1 career innings, 66.2 IP in 2021. Surgery after 14 2021 starts with a 5.41 ERA.
Tylor Megill: 18 career starts; 4.52 ERA, most innings ever pitched in the majors in a season, 89.2, in 2021. Megill sparkled in his first seven starts, but after August 1, his numbers were: 3-5, 6.13, one quality start out of 11. Megill carried himself well in the first month in the majors, but it must be noted that he was not considered a top prospect in the Mets system, drafted in the 8th round in 2018 and compiling a record in the minors of 9-10 with a 3.41 ERA and only three starts at Triple-A. Going into 2021 he was ranked the 29th prospect in the Mets not-so-hot farm system, and the 11th pitcher.
What would be the perfect rotation standard?
Let’s say it was four pitchers, age 30 or younger, coming off a season of 25 starts or more. Seem impossible? The Mets had it in 2019: deGrom, Syndergaard, Wheeler, Matz, then Stroman added mid-year. Four All-Star quality starting pitchers (counting Wheeler in 2021). Another, well, All-Star in 2018, Vargas.
The bottom line is, for a win now, 2022, the Mets need to add not one healthy young established pitcher to the rotation, but two. In my opinion.
