Ever since the New York Mets signed both Michael Wacha and Rick Porcello in a 24-hour span back in December, everyone has talked about the depth the Mets featured in their rotation.
Many quibbled at the decision to sign both pitchers to fill the void left by Zack Wheeler in free agency for multiple reasons. Critics argued that neither pitcher was good enough to offset the loss of Wheeler, while also questioning why the Mets made the move to sign both, when one starter would have sufficed.
Now three months later, Brodie Van Wagenen is looking wise for adding such starting pitching depth in free agency, as Noah Syndergaard will be forced to undergo Tommy John surgery. The Mets still have a full five-man rotation without him.
But what is left behind them if the inevitable injury bug strikes again?
In the short-term, the Marcus Stroman trade continues to look better over time, as he becomes the clear No. 2 starter behind Jacob deGrom in 2020. Still, in making that deal, the Mets gave up a potential long-term rotation piece in top prospect Anthony Kay.
Kay, 25, made his MLB debut for the Toronto Blue Jays last season, after a very solid year in the minor leagues that saw him pitch to a 3.84 ERA across 26 starts in Double-A and Triple-A. Kay was particularly spectacular pitching for the Mets Double-A affiliate the Binghamton Rumble Ponies, where he pitched to a 1.76 ERA across 12 starts.
Along with dealing Kay, Van Wagenen had previously moved another top pitching prospect in Justin Dunn, who was included in the the now infamous trade that brought Robinson Cano and Edwin Diaz to Queens.
Dunn, 24, made his debut for the Seattle Mariners in 2019 and pitched to a 2.70 ERA in just 6 2/3 innings pitched. Without those two former top prospects, the Mets are left with just David Peterson as a former top draft pick that could help their rotation this season.
Peterson was the Mets first round draft pick back in 2017, getting selected after three years spent at the University of Oregon. Last year, the 6-foot-6 left-hander pitched to a 4.19 ERA across 24 starts in Double-A. He also struck out 122 batters in 116 innings pitched, producing the best K/9 rate (9.5) of his professional career.
The 24-year-old continued to turn heads in spring training, yielding just one run and striking out six batters across six innings pitched in the Grapefruit League. Peterson probably represents the highest ceiling of the Mets depth options that could factor into their starting rotation.
Corey Oswalt and Walker Lockett remain as options to help the rotation, although neither has found much success in spot starts for the Mets in the past. New York also added three pitchers on minor league deals this offseason, as Stephen Gonsalves, Erasmo Ramirez and Pedro Payano all figure to be part of the Syracuse Mets rotation in Triple-A.
The reality of the situation for the Mets is that they have plenty of depth to absorb the loss of a starting pitcher, just not the one that actually went down with this injury.
Even with Wacha and Porcello able to round out the back-end of the rotation, neither pitcher comes close to making up for what Syndergaard was expected to produce.
Instead the onus is on Stroman and Steven Matz to pick up the slack in his absence. Losing either pitcher (or much worse Jacob deGrom), would be the death blow to the Mets hopes at contention.
The New York Mets still have enough quality arms to be able to compete in 2020, yet the margin of error for their starting pitching depth just got a lot thinner.
