3 Starters the Mets Should Target to Fill Out Their Rotation

Editor’s note: This article originally ran on December 19 before Yoshinobu Yamamoto signed with the Dodgers and was framed as starters the Mets could sign if he signed with the Mets or not. It’s been lightly edited to reflect the team’s need to fill out the rotation.

The Mets head into the 2024 season with a rotation that needs work. Kodai Senga and José Quintana are the only two locks, as the rotation took another blow with news David Peterson would be out until at least midseason after hip surgery.

The Mets took their first step when they signed reclamation projection Luis Severino to a one-year, $13 million contract. And, well, that’s the only notable signing they made this entire offseason so far. While it won’t be the splashiest like in seasons past that saw the arrivals of Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander, the Mets need to bolster their staff.

While they took a stab at a top-of-the-line starter in Yoshinobu Yamamoto, he signed with the Dodgers instead. At the same time, the Mets aren’t likely to go after the likes of Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery.

Below are a few mid-tier pitchers expected to receive short-term deals the Mets should target in free agency as they try to round out their rotation:

Lucas Giolito

Much like Severino, Lucas Giolito is something of a reclamation project. He’s had an up-and-down career, mostly with the Chicago White Sox, where he enjoyed his best years. Giolito had a rough go of things in 2023 between the White Sox, Angels and Guardians, posting a 4.88 ERA and going 8-15. He allowed 169 hits, 100 earned runs, and a league-high 41 home runs through 184 innings pitched.

His xBA and xERA in 2023 sat league average or slightly below, but a promising sign is that his whiff% was in the 70th percentile, and his K% rate was in the 67th percentile. Giolito has potential left in him, and a possible change in scenery without being shuttled around might be what’s needed.

It wouldn’t be surprising to see Giolito sign a short-term deal to rebuild his value.

James Paxton

No stranger to the one-year deal, James Paxton has often thrived off them. He spent 2023 with the Red Sox and, after recovering from Tommy John surgery in 2021, posted a respectable 4.50 ERA through 96 innings. He struck out 101 batters and issued only 33 walks. His season was cut short due to right knee inflammation.

While Paxton hasn’t pitched over 150 innings or even 100 innings since 2019, injury plagued him. He underwent lumbar surgery in 2020 to remove a cyst and then the aforementioned elbow surgery in 2021. Paxton struggled the back half of the 2023 season post-trade deadline but was dealing with knee inflammation for an unspecified amount of time.

2023 saw an increase in his ground ball rate, 42.5%, his best since 2017 with Seattle. His hard-hit rate was also the lowest since 2017 when he had arguably the best season of his career. His average fastball velocity, 95.2, in 2023 hasn’t dropped off from 2017, proving he still has something to give.

Sean Manaea

Like Giolito and Paxton, Sean Manaea has had his fair share of successes and failures in the big leagues. After spending most of his career with the Oakland Athletics, Manaea signed a one-year contract with the Giants. He began the season as a starter but transitioned to a reliever by season’s end.

Manaea can act as a Seth Lugo or Trevor Williams pitcher for the Mets, which gives them flexibility. While he had the highest walk rate of his career in 2023 (8.4%), he had the second-lowest home run rate (2.8%) and lowest hard-hit rate (36.6%) of his career. Control seems to be an issue; his 3.2 BB/9 was the highest of his career.

However, Manaea once ranked in the top 3% in walk rate. He dropped his sinker in favor of a 4-seam fastball in 2022 when he signed with the Padres, around when things started to turn sour for him.