Diamondbacks beat writer Nick Piecoro of The Arizona Republic wrote a piece yesterday exploring the possibility of the Diamondbacks trading their three biggest superstars if they do not contend this season: Paul Goldschmidt, A.J. Pollock and Zack Greinke. GM Mike Hazen seemed to echo a sentiment sympathetic to rebuilding earlier this month:
“Picking first is a lot better than picking fifth,” Hazen was quoted as saying in the piece. “From a long-term building standpoint, there are clear advantages to being in those positions over a period of time.”
If this means that Paul Goldschmidt becomes available at any point in time– whether that be at the deadline, next offseason or the one after that, the Mets should not hesitate to do everything they can to bring him to Flushing. This includes trading Amed Rosario, who is pretty much considered untouchable by the front office.
Now, just to be clear: The story didn’t say that any trade was imminent, and there’s no reporting that indicates the Mets would be interested in Goldschmidt should he become available, which is still a big if, so file this into the pure speculation department.
There’s no denying that Goldschmidt is a good fit for the Mets; he is a top-ten offensive player by just about any metric, and could be the offensive superstar the Mets need to supplement their elite pitching staff. “Goldy” has batted .305/.412/.538 while averaging 28 home runs, 100 RBIs and 19 steals since 2013, making him one of the few bright spots on the Diamondbacks. He would trump Yoenis Cespedes as the best offensive player on the Mets should they acquire him.
Goldschmidt also has perhaps the most team-friendly contract in sports right now. He’s under team control until 2019, and is owed just $34.5 million over that timeframe ($8.75m in 2017, $11m in 2018, $14.5m in 2019 club option). This would mean that should the Mets acquire him, they would have at least two seasons of Goldschmidt along with their star-studded rotation.
The Mets need to plan on winning a championship (or championships) before 2020 and need to approach this aggressively by putting all of their chips on the table. The team will have its core pitchers together until 2018, when Matt Harvey becomes a free agent. After that, Jacob deGrom will become a free agent in 2020, and then Noah Syndergaard and Steven Matz in 2021. It will be next to impossible to keep all four of these guys, so the Mets need to be as aggressive as possible while they have this potentially once-in-a-generation staff under their control.
This brings us to Rosario. You can count on one hand the guys it would be acceptable to trade him for, and Goldschmidt is unquestionably on that hand. Rosario would definitely act as a cornerstone prospect for which the Diamondbacks could focus their rebuild around. The Mets also have several other upper-level prospects including Dominic Smith, Justin Dunn and Thomas Szapucki that could become solid chips in a trade.
The general idea is that this is Lucas Duda‘s last season as a Met with Dominic Smith waiting in the wings. The Diamondbacks could be interested in a trade that also includes Smith who would be under their control for years to come and would be a long-term replacement for Goldschmidt. While the Mets would lose a solid first base prospect, they would gain a perennial MVP threat with a manageable contract with the possibility of an extension.
If Rosario were to be traded, it would speak again to the current window in which the Mets can win. At shortstop, they have two more years of control over Asdrubal Cabrera as well as Wilmer Flores and other lower-tier prospects. If Rosario is still a Met in 2018, it is likely that Cabrera’s option will not be picked up and Rosario will be the every day starter.
The decision you’d have to make is, in 2018, would you rather have Cabrera at short and Goldschmidt at first, or Rosario at short and Smith at first? Which would give you a better chance to win a World Series? In my opinion, the answer to that is simple.
Trading any of these prospects, obviously, is not ideal. However, when you can add an elite batter during an already-promising championship window, you do it. Every. Single. Time.
