Mets Host Phillies in Weekend Series in Season’s Final Chance

How many times can Met fans possibly repeat the following phrases:

“The Mets still have a chance”

“We’re only five games out of first place”

“A huge winning streak starts now”

“It’s just one bad game, tomorrow the offense will score more runs”

Unfortunately, I’ve been one of these people. Heartbreaking losses followed by offensive ineptitude has never made me forget the fact that the Mets are still in NL East contention. After the Subway Series, in which the Mets convincingly won two of three games, I believed.

In fact, I had this gut feeling that the Mets were at the start of a magical September run that would culminate in the franchise’s first postseason berth since 2016. As the season enters its final two weeks, I must say I thought wrong.

The 2021 Mets are not a playoff team, as much as I want to believe so. What started as a season of hope with Steve Cohen as the new owner has quickly faded into a summer of misery.

How is this the same ballclub that held first place in the NL East every day from early May through early August? The collapse we’ve all witnessed has truly been difficult to watch, but until Game #162 has concluded, the season moves forward.

And the Mets must move forward for 15 more games. The last lap – or, the rounding third and headed home portion of the schedule, we can call it – resumes on Friday evening, when the Mets welcome the Philadelphia Phillies for a three-game set at Citi Field. Philadelphia, who for much of the season trailed the Mets in the standings, now leads their New York rivals by 2 1/2 games.

The latest victory for the Fightin’ Phils was a 17-8 win over the Cubs. The Phillies actually trailed this game 7-0 at one point, but went on a 17-1 run from the fourth inning on. Does this type of game ring a bell to anyone? Well on August 24, 2015, the Mets trailed the Phillies 7-2, before emerging victorious 16-7 thanks for an eight home run night.

If only the Mets had some of that 2015 magic to lift them up right now. Morale could not be any lower in Queens. After getting swept by the Cardinals, the Mets first off-day of the month was headlined by Steve Cohen calling out a mystery source that was quoted in a New York Post article.

Returning to the field on Friday means the Mets must win almost every game remaining, if not all of them – literally – in order to reach playoff baseball. While these previews have tended to trend toward optimism, the recent turn of events with this ballclub has made myself, and most of the fanbase, look ahead to 2022.

With all that being said, there is one positive that most definitely still remains: Mets baseball will be played for at least another two weeks, and that in itself is something to be thankful for. Let’s take a look at the pitching matchups for this NL East rivalry weekend series.

Friday, September 17, 2021: RHP Taijuan Walker (7-9, 4.29 ERA) vs. LHP Zack Wheeler (13-9, 2.86 ERA)

Taijuan Walker has been super inconsistent lately, and the results are trending downwards. After a very rough last three starts of July (15.43 ERA), Walker settled down a bit in August, compiling a 4.15 ERA over five starts in the month.

But in two September starts, Walker’s ERA has risen again to 9.58. He’s allowed multiple home runs in both of these September outings, an unfortunate stat that he also recorded over his first two starts of August. In Walker’s last start against the Phillies on August 8, he allowed four hits and three runs in six innings, earning the loss.

The last time Zack Wheeler took on the Mets, he threw one of the best games of his major league games. In a nine-inning shutout victory, Wheeler allowed a mere two hits and one walk. He struck out 11 Met batters as his season ERA shrunk to 2.42. However, since that gem against the Mets, Wheeler has been hit hard.

In his following four starts, Wheeler allowed at least four earned runs in each game, which resulted in a 6.41 ERA over that span. September has been a fresh start for the Phillies ace though, as his ERA is a slim 0.71 in 12 2/3 innings over two starts this month.

Saturday, September 18, 2021: RHP Carlos Carrasco (1-2, 5.59 ERA) vs. RHP Aaron Nola (7-8, 4.58 ERA)

Carlos Carrasco is still working his way back from an injury that kept him off the hill for the entire season prior to July 30, but after a questionable start to his Mets career, he seems to finally be settling into the dominant pitcher we knew him as in Cleveland.

His best outing wearing the blue and orange was a seven-inning game on August 26 against the Giants, in which he allowed three hits, two earned runs, and a home run. Since then, Cookie has posted a 3.52 ERA in three September starts, all of which ended in Met victories.

Considered the Phillies definite ace entering the 2021 season, Aaron Nola has been one of the team’s biggest letdowns. His 4.58 overall ERA this year is bad enough for someone who had Cy Young hopes, but he’s gotten even worse as a pitcher this month.

In September, Nola’s ERA is a pedestrian 7.53, which is mostly a result of allowing six earned runs to the Nationals on September 2. One positive of Nola’s pitching this season is the consistent strikeout numbers. Over his past eight starts, Nola has struck out at least seven batters in five of those games.

Sunday, September 19, 2021: LHP Rich Hill (6-7, 3.88 ERA) vs. RHP Kyle Gibson (10-7, 3.49 ERA)

Despite not joining the rotation until late July, Rich Hill has quickly become one of the Mets more dependable pitchers this season. His 2.12 ERA in September has resulted in no victories for the veteran pitcher, if only because of a lack of run support supplied by a flat Mets offense.

Over his past five starts, he’s pitched at least five innings and allowed no more than three runs in each game. This solid performance has been good for an exactly even 3.00 ERA. The veteran holds a 3.48 ERA in 31.0 career innings against the Phillies.

After a very encouraging first month in Philadelphia (3.16 ERA in six August pitching appearances, including five starts), Kyle Gibson has a 9.00 ERA in his three September starts. The worst of this trio of games was on September 3, when Gibson allowed eight hits, two walks, and eight runs (all earned) to the pesky Marlins in 5 1/3 innings.

Since joining the Phillies from the Texas Rangers at the trade deadline, Gibson’s season ERA has risen by over 0.60 runs. He allowed just one run in six innings in his last start against the Mets on August 6.

Prediction 

Riding the momentum of their football-score-like game on Thursday night, the Phillies come into New York and the bats stay hot. Bryce Harper belts multiple home runs in this series as he continues to make a case for NL MVP honors. In at least one of these three games, I would not be surprised to see the Mets bullpen blow a late lead, but that’s not that crazy of a prediction nowadays.

By the weekend’s end, the Phillies will have won two of three games in New York and basically pushed the Mets playoff chances to under 1%.

I’m a strong proponent of the phrase “Ya Gotta Believe”, but belief in this team is very difficult to find when the losses pile up so quickly. If this is the end of the Mets chances in 2021, then it’s a fate we’ll have to accept. 2021 brought quite a few memorable moments in the history of this franchise, but going out quietly seems to be what the 2021 New York Mets are destined for after an epic post-All-Star break collapse.