Mets Get Gold Glove Center Fielder

HARRISON BADER, OF

Position: CF B/T: R/R
Age: 29 (06/24/1994)

2023 Traditional Stats: 98 G, 319 AB, .232/.274/.348, 7 HR, 40 RBI, 44 R, 20 SB
2023 Advanced Stats: 0.6 bWAR, 1.0 fWAR, 69 OPS+, 17.2% %, 4.9% BB%, 9 OAA

RUNDOWN

The Mets handed out their second significant contract of the 2024 offseason on Thursday, inking Harrison Bader to a one-year deal. A former college teammate of Pete Alonso at the University of Florida, the former Gator made his MLB debut in 2017 with the St. Louis Cardinals. He spent parts of five seasons with St. Louis as their primary center fielder, hitting .246 with 52 home runs and a .729 OPS in a little over 500 games.

He was then traded to the New York Yankees at the 2022 trade deadline for Jordan Montgomery, but played just 14 games for the Yankees in 2022 and 84 games in 2023 before being placed on waivers about 13 months after the original trade. He was then claimed by the Cincinnati Reds for the final month of the season, where he played just 14 games.

Offensively, Bader’s numbers took a hit after his move away from St. Louis. His career OPS with the Yankees was about 100 points lower than it was with the Cardinals, and he struggled mightily in his cup of coffee with the Reds.

Defensively, though, Bader was still elite, winning a Gold Glove in 2021, his final full season with the Cardinals, and roaming center just as well after he left.

The biggest concern with Bader is probably his ability to stay on the field. He has never played more than 138 games in a season, and that was back in 2018. Over the past three seasons, Bader has played 103 games (’21), 86 games (’22) and 98 games (’23). In just 2023 alone, Bader was placed on the injured list three times — once for a left oblique strain, then a right hamstring strain and finally a right groin strain.

CONTRACT

The Mets gave Bader a one-year, $10.5 million contract, the second eight-figure deal the team has handed out so far this offseason. The first was a 1-year, $13 million deal to Luis Severino, another former Yankee. It’s the same deal Kevin Kiermaier received from the Toronto Blue Jays, another Gold Glove-caliber center fielder with a below-average bat, who is also four years older than Bader.

Other outfielders who got comparable deals are Jason Heyward (one-year, $9 million) and Hunter Renfroe (two-years, $13 million). Bader’s contract, when factoring in what he brings to the table defensively, seems fair.

DEEPER LOOK

After this signing, there’s a good chance Brandon Nimmo sees some time in left field this season. Nimmo is far from bad defensively. In fact, he’s actually pretty good. He was 70th percentile in outs above average in 2023, 90th percentile in 2022 and 89th percentile in 2021. However, Bader is elite.

In 2023, Bader was in the 95th percentile in outs above average with nine. There were just six center fielders who had more: Brenton Doyle, Kiermaier, Luis Robert Jr., Julio Rodríguez, Kyle Isbel and Daulton Varsho. Since 2017, the year Bader debuted, only Kiermaier and Lorenzo Cain have more OAA among center fielders. If you start from 2018, the first year Bader was a full-time player, no one is better.

Nimmo is still good, and will still play a fair amount of center field in 2024. Bader has well-documented injury issues, and his bat makes him a shaky everyday player anyway (more on that later), so when Bader isn’t in the lineup, Nimmo moves back from left field to center. It very well could have a positive impact on Nimmo as well. He’s locked into Queens through 2030, so hopefully, having a bit less ground to cover will be a benefit in the long run. His arm is also below average, which is less of an issue in left.

Now, back to Bader. Offensively, he’s likely going to be below average. The 2023 season was rough, with his .622 OPS and 69 OPS+ both easily being career lows. His 2022 was also below average, but his .650 OPS and 85 OPS+ weren’t quite as bad. If we go back to 2021, which was really just two seasons ago, he was pretty good. He only played 103 games, but hit .267/.324/.460, good for a .785 OPS and 114 OPS+, with 16 home runs. If the Mets can somehow get that type of season out of Bader again, it would be a huge success. That said, his offensive peripherals don’t give any indication that will happen.

On the plus side, offensively, Bader has always hit lefties well (.824 career OPS) and mashed them in 2023 to the tune of a .936 OPS.

When he’s on the field, Bader is nothing short of an elite defender. The issue is, he isn’t on the field far too often. As noted earlier, he had three stints on the injured list in 2023 alone. Two of them were for lower body injuries. A lot of his game is in his speed, so it is a very legitimate concern there. At this point, it’s unrealistic to expect a full season out of him. He has spent at least a notable amount of time on the injured list in four of the past five seasons. The only year he didn’t hit the IL was 2020, when the season lasted just 60 games.

What is the most likely scenario for Bader with the Mets in 2024? He plays about two-thirds of the games, turns in a 75-85 OPS+ as the No. 9 hitter and fields a very good center field.

GRADE: B-

It’s been very clear that David Stearns values defense. Adding Bader to the outfield is as strong an indication as you can get. Bader likely isn’t going to bring much to the table at the plate. But what he does bring is probably the single-best glove in center field in all of baseball. How much is that worth? To Stearns and the Mets, $10.5 million.

Bader joins an outfield that now includes Nimmo, Starling Marte, DJ Stewart and Tyrone Taylor. Given Bader’s strength against left-handed pitching, he will likely start against most southpaws and start some games in center against righties as well to give Nimmo a break from covering all that ground.

As it stands right now, Stewart and Mark Vientos are the DH options. That likely isn’t going to be the case on opening day; the Mets very well could add a DH in free agency. Justin Turner seems the most likely choice as he can also be a backup infielder, though the Mets do have Joey Wendle (another very strong defender) for that role, so it’s not a requirement. That also leaves the door open for J.D. Martinez, who is, at this point a DH-only player.

Players like Jorge Soler and Teoscar Hernández are probably less likely now because while they can DH a lot, they likely will not want to be full-time DHs at this stage in their careers. Signing Bader probably ends the possibility of the Mets signing a bigger-name free agent to play the outfield. It still leaves the door wide open for them to sign a DH.

Ultimately, this is a one-year deal. If the Mets get a productive player, great. If not, oh well, it’s not a big deal. No long-term commitment means no worries. With Steve Cohen, this Bader signing isn’t moving the needle financially one way or the other. The Mets will still be over the luxury tax in 2024, and 2025’s payroll isn’t impacted. It’s a low-downside move for the Mets, even if the upside isn’t extraordinarily exciting.