Robert Stephenson
Position: RHP Bats/Throws: R/R
Age: 30 (02/24/1993)
2023 Traditional Stats: 60 G, 52 1/3 IP, 3.10 ERA, 0.879 WHIP, 3-4, 1 SV, 77 K, 16 BB
2023 Advanced Stats: 138 ERA+, 38.3% K%, 8.0% BB%, 2.73 xERA, 3.22 FIP, 2.84 xFIP, 0.9 fWAR, 1.1 bWAR
Rundown
After a tough 2022 season, Robert Stephenson got off to a rocky start in 2023. He appeared in 18 games for the Pirates, posting a 5.14 ERA with an unsightly 13.1% walk rate through 14 innings. In early June, Pittsburgh shipped Stephenson to Tampa Bay for infielder Alika Williams.
Like many pitchers in the last decade, Stephenson was nearly unhittable after the trade to the Rays. He appeared in 42 games for Tampa Bay, recording a sparkling 2.35 ERA/2.45 FIP and a 0.678 WHIP in 38 1/3 innings, striking out 42.9% of his opponents against just a 5.7% walk rate. Opponents managed an anemic .487 OPS against him and he allowed a hard-hit rate of just 26.4%.
Stephenson was dominant in large part because of his cutter. The pitch registered an astounding 59.9% whiff rate, a 51.2% strikeout rate, and a 46.2% putaway rate. Opponents hit just .101 against it, with an xSLG of .245. All told, Stephenson’s cutter had a strong run value of 12. Stephenson’s slider and splitter produced good results as well, both generating whiff rates upwards of 41% and positive run values. Stephenson only threw his splitter 10.6% of the time, but opponents had a weak .175 xSLG against it and it only ever produced weak contact.
Stephenson’s weakness has always been home runs, as he gave up eight in 52 1/3 innings this year (1.4 HR/9). His home run-to-fly ball rate of 15.5% is the highest it’s been for a full season. However, Stephenson’s 31.5% fly-ball rate is the lowest mark he’s recorded since 2019, and his 33.3% ground-ball rate is a sharp increase over his 26.6% mark in 2022. His opponents still only registered an average exit velocity of 86.6 miles per hour, which is the lowest mark of his career. Stephenson’s 2.73 xERA and 2.84 xFIP indicate that the best might be yet to come in his career.
Contract
MLB Trade Rumors predicts Stephenson to get a four-year contract worth $36 million. Anthony Franco of the site even predicts the Mets will sign the 30-year-old. The Mets have rarely given relievers contracts of that length, having only handed four or five-year deals to Edwin Díaz and Billy Wagner. Díaz is the only reliever on the team currently on a hefty contract.
Recommendation
The Mets’ bullpen was a major disappointment in 2023, and right now, Díaz and Brooks Raley appear to be the only pitchers with a secure roster spot heading into 2024. Stephenson would be a huge weapon for the Mets and likely would receive a lot of opportunities in high-leverage situations. While David Stearns hasn’t made any flashy moves to beef up the bullpen so far, Stephenson is a player that needs to be on the Mets’ radar.
