It almost feels like déjà vu all over again, right?
Although the New York Mets’ month of April wasn’t nearly as good as it was in 2018, there was certainly a sense of optimism (especially earlier in the month). We’re only about a week into May, but things haven’t exactly been smooth sailing for the club recently.
Their most recent homestand ended with a disappointing 5-5 record before getting swept by the Milwaukee Brewers on the road, which included that painful 18-inning defeat Saturday night. They enter Tuesday’s action against the San Diego Padres with a 16-19 record and 3.5 games behind the first-place Philadelphia Phillies thanks to losing 8 of 11. All that led to a -27 run differential, which is third-worst in the National League.
Any way you slice it, things are not going well. With New York’s struggles taking shape, I couldn’t help but think once again about last year’s start and how quickly it spiraled out of control. Here’s a quick look at the Mets’ month-by-month record, team wRC+, and team ERA from April to June of 2018.
| Month | Record | Team wRC+ | Team ERA |
|---|---|---|---|
| March/April ’18 | 17-9 | 99 | 3.81 |
| May ’18 | 10-18 | 97 | 4.55 |
| June ’18 | 5-21 | 81 | 4.71 |
All of the worst trends, basically. Even if the Mets got off a better start in 2019, there would still be pressure on them to avoid last year’s tailspin. Through Sunday’s games, here’s how the Mets’ above numbers look so far this season.
| Month | Record | Team wRC+ | Team ERA |
|---|---|---|---|
| March/April ’19 | 15-14 | 109 | 5.28 |
| May ’19 (through 5/5) | 1-5 | 23 | 2.28 |
The amount of data between these two samples is obviously very lopsided, but it helps illustrate just how much the offense has struggled while the pitching staff has turned things around. At first glance of these two tables — and without knowing anything else — it sure does look like the Mets are headed in the same direction as 2018.
In a tight and competitive NL East, any prolonged period of success or failure is likely going to have an immediate impact on the standings — it’s just the way it’s going to be over the next few months. There will be some valleys (like the one they’re currently experiencing) but also some peaks that will hopefully outweigh them.
Seriously, though, this is the perfect test for the Mets — having the kind of season the Boston Red Sox did en route to dominating in October and winning the World Series in 2018 is the exception, not the rule. There are going to be happy times and there are going to be frustrating times throughout any season. What will separate a true contender from a pretender is if a struggling team can minimize losing streaks as much as possible.
The Mets simply didn’t have the firepower to do that in 2018. While there are concerns with the current roster as the season progresses, it’s too early to know which side of the coin New York (or any other NL East squad) will end up on in 2019. Each big-league season comes with a bunch of tests for every organization, and this is the first real one for the Mets.
Even the best teams endure a stretch of one or two sub-optimal weeks, but if they can get back on track in short order, it’s not a huge deal. It becomes a problem when the issues continue mounting and snowball into a bad month or two, which is something the Mets know far too much about.
Although it would’ve been nice to get a little deeper into 2019 before getting to the Mets’ first turning point, they’re here now. This recent rough patch has done a number to their playoff odds, but they’re still in the thick of things in the NL East. So instead of panicking and letting these struggles turn into worse issues, the players on this roster need to take a page out of the big book of sports clichés and focus on one game at a time.
If they have the personnel to be a contender — or at least the potential to be a contender — they’ll turn it around. We just have to wait and see if they can escape last year’s patterns before it’s too late.
