Photo by Ed Delany of Metsmerized

Before spring started, I projected what the Mets’ Opening Day roster would be. Those projections are never 100% because ramping up for a season causes injuries, surprises, and more. Given we’re now just 16 days away from the first game of the year, let’s do another projection based on how spring training has gone so far.

Starting Lineup

1. Brandon Nimmo
2. Starling Marte
3. Francisco Lindor
4. Pete Alonso
5. Daniel Vogelbach
6. Jeff McNeil
7. Mark Canha
8. Eduardo Escobar
9. Omar Narváez

This stays the same from pre-spring. However, I did note in the previous iteration that Escobar “may find himself in a position battle with Brett Baty” this spring. I’d say with strong confidence that is now the case.

Starting Rotation

10. Max Scherzer
11. Justin Verlander
12. Kodai Senga
13. Carlos Carrasco
14. David Peterson

Health will be the crux of the Mets’ rotation, and that has shown itself so far in spring. José Quintana will likely be out for half of the season with a fractured rib. (It was revealed Monday he will rest and let it heal for three months, though Billy Eppler says that report is “premature.”) I think David Peterson will take his place. Though Tylor Megill has also looked strong so far this spring, Peterson has felt like the first man up in the Mets’ eyes. He had a strong year last year while Megill has been trying to right the ship following an injury-riddled 2022.

(Note: Peterson bruised his foot on a comebacker and a week and a half ago and has been considered day-to-day. He’s scheduled to pitch Tuesday.)

Bench

15. Brett Baty
16. Tomás Nido
17. Tommy Pham
18. Luis Guillorme

Before the spring, I thought the Mets would give Darin Ruf the spring plus some regular season to get back on track after he struggled mightily after coming over from San Francisco. I don’t think that’s the case anymore. Between Ruf’s seemingly chronic wrist issue and his poor performance when he has played, it wouldn’t surprise me if the Mets move on from Ruf by the end of the spring. I also think Brett Baty will take his place.

A couple of weeks ago, I wrote that I thought Baty’s only chance to make the Opening Day roster was to have a Pete Alonso-type spring. He’s done that so far, slashing .423/.516/.577/1.093 in 31 plate appearances. He’s showed his gap-to-gap power and sprayed hits all over the field. He’s also played well at third base. There’s a world where the Mets find Baty at-bats with him alternating between playing third base (against righties) and left field when guys like Marte and Canha need days off. Baty’s bat is MLB-ready. Now the team just needs to find him plate appearances.

Bullpen

19. Edwin Díaz
20. Adam Ottavino
21. David Robertson
22. Brooks Raley
23. Drew Smith
24. Stephen Nogosek
25. John Curtiss
26. Sam Coonrod

Opening Day Projection 1.0 had Jeff Brigham and Elieser Hernández as the last two bullpen arms. This one has John Curtiss and Sam Coonrod. Curtiss has been lights out, generating a ton of swings and misses and striking out the majority of the batters he’s faced. The team signed him to a deal last year and helped him rehab from Tommy John. Any production from Curtiss this year will be a plus. Coonrod has also been great this spring, allowing just three baserunners and striking out six over four innings. (Coonrod would need a 40-man roster spot, but the team already designated Zach Greene—a Rule 5 draft pick—for assignment, and Quintana will start the year on the 60-day injured list.)

I still think Nogosek breaks camp with the team (he doesn’t have any options left), but his leash will be short. If he doesn’t, I could easily see his spot going to Brigham or Tommy Hunter.

Near Misses

28. Francisco Álvarez
29. Tylor Megill/Joey Lucchesi
30. Tim Locastro

Tim Locastro has been awesome this spring. I just don’t see them carrying him over any of the aforementioned bench players. An unhealthy start to the year for a position player could open a lane for the speedster.

Álvarez, on the other hand, has struggled. He has just two hits and a walk in 20 plate appearances. It seems the team’s goal this spring is to make sure the 21-year-old is developing well behind the plate, and he’ll spend lots of time in Triple-A shoring that up. The bat will always be there, but it’s just not Álvarez’s time just yet.