Mets Position Battle Watch: Third Base

With the Carlos Correa saga behind them, the Mets are faced with an intriguing position battle at third base heading into spring training. Eduardo Escobar, who played 130 games at the hot corner in 2022, and top prospect Brett Baty both have compelling cases as to why they should be the primary option at the position in 2023. With that, let’s break down each player’s strengths and weaknesses and provide an outlook on who could ultimately win the job.

Despite a rough stretch during the middle of the season, Eduardo Escobar slashed .240/.295/.405 with a 106 wRC+ and 2.3 fWAR in 2022. He also broke the 20-home run plateau and had 69 RBIs, both of which ranked third on the team. A strong September and October helped cushion his numbers, as he slashed .321/.385/.596 with a 176 wRC+ during those two months. A key for Escobar moving forward will be consistency though, as he hit .224/.279/.379 with a 94 wRC+ during the first half in what was an exceptionally streaky campaign.

An inherent trait that could play in Escobar’s favor regardless of the outcome of a potential position battle is that he crushes lefties, raising his stock as a platoon option. Last season, he hit .263/.302/.525 with a 133 wRC+ and .351 wOBA against southpaws while slashing .231/.293/.387 against righties. His power is another factor that works in his favor, as he has five 20-homer seasons in total over his career.

Escobar’s baserunning should be considered a strength too despite a lack of stolen bases, as he finished 2o22 with a 3.1 BsR according to Fangraphs while finishing in the 66th percentile for sprint speed. His overall track record as a full-time starter in the league speaks for itself as well, as he finished each of his last four full seasons with an fWAR of 2.3 or higher.

The predominant concern with Escobar’s profile is his defense and swing-and-miss tendencies. He put up -11 Defensive Runs Saved and -7 Outs Above Average at third in 2022 while also finishing in the 8th percentile for OAA across the league. At the plate, he struck out 23.8% of the time last year and well below average whiff and chase rates of 27.7% and 34.0% respectively.

Brett Baty, while likely the underdog between the two players, has a legitimate shot to earn the starting role. Recently ranked the No. 21 prospect in baseball by MLB Pipeline, Baty slashed .184/.244/.342 with a 71 wRC+ and -0.1 fWAR in 11 games and 42 plate appearances as a rookie in 2022. While his first cup of coffee in the bigs wasn’t necessarily successful, that doesn’t take away from his outlook moving forward. In fact, the positives of that stint may outweigh the negative as he showed off impressive potential with his average exit velocity of 91.1 MPH and max exit velocity of 113.0 MPH.

Baty was also able to convert his immense raw power into greater results in the minors in 2022, mashing 19 homers across 89 games in Double-A after hitting 12 the year prior in 91 games. That bodes well for his development, as a big knock on his game was his inability to lift the ball. For example, his groundball rate in 2021 at Double-A was 61.2%, which declined to 42.6% at the same level in 2022.

Strikeouts have plagued Baty throughout his professional career thus far too, but his reputation as a patient and pure hitter has uplifted his profile. He had walk rates of 11.5% at Single-A and 12.5% at Double-A in 2021 and 11.7% at Double-A in 2022. Furthermore, he has hit .292 in the minors and continues to make strides in hitting the ball to all fields, particularly up the middle.

There have been questions about Baty’s future at third base, but he’s shown enough to quell those concerns for the time being. His arm, which was graded a 60 out of 80 by MLB Pipeline, plays well at the position and is also one of the crowning reasons behind his hypothetical move to left field earlier in the offseason. His range and overall glove work is satisfactory as well, and he has shown the eagerness to continue to improve in the field this spring.

Escobar would appear to be the front runner over Baty for the starting job at third at this point, but it’s logical to assume there will be a time-share of sorts via platoon. Both players bring their respective pros and cons, as Escobar offers experience and reliability while Baty has a higher upside and more complete skillset at the plate while likely a defensive upgrade. Nonetheless, the position battle between the two has a chance to be one of the more substantial storylines coming out of Port St. Lucie in the coming months.