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With the trade of Steven Matz to the Toronto Blue Jays on Wednesday night, the New York Mets now presumably turn to left-hander Joey Lucchesi to fill that gap in the back of the team’s rotation.
Acquired in a three-team deal with the Padres and Pirates earlier this offseason, the 27-year-old former fourth-round draft pick is an intriguing player.
With four years of team control to his name and a ceiling arguably just as high if not higher than Matz’s, the California product could be a quiet but strong addition for the Mets.
In his rookie campaign of 2018, Lucchesi’s 4.08 ERA over 26 starts with San Diego ranked 12th among qualified rookie starters and his 10.04 strikeouts and 2.98 walks per nine were good for eighth and 15th, respectively, among the same group. Promising.
Over 30 starts the following season, his ERA mostly stood pat (4.18), and his strikeout and walk rates both decreased a bit (8.69 K/9, 3.08 BB/9), but Lucchesi more than doubled his wins above replacement, putting up 2.1 fWAR compared to the 1.0 he racked up in his rookie year.
It says a lot when a young pitcher can withstand the pressures of the league inevitably getting a book on him after a solid start in the show. We love to see it, in fact.
Equipped with a pair of deceptive fastballs and a unique signature out pitch (his self-developed churve, a curveball with a circle-change grip), Lucchesi has the arsenal to keep hitters off-balance which, of course, is the name of the game.
He won’t overpower opposing batters (both the sinker and cutter sit around 90 MPH, top out at 92-93), but he certainly will keep you guessing.
In the video below, notice how well Lucchesi hides the ball throughout his delivery.
Paul Goldschmidt would normally have no issue taking this ball down the line in right field. Though, with duplicity on his side, Lucchesi can afford to take perceived chances.
As we’ve been hearing more and more with the advancements being made in pitch design (read up on seam-shifted wake), MLB hitters are apparently quite adept at picking up the spin on pitches, affording them a split-second to adjust accordingly.
But when Lucchesi mixes up his sinker and cutter efficiently, that advantage — no matter how slight — is arguably negated.
Per Statcast, Lucchesi’s sinker and cutter have identical spin directions of 10:45 (think of the minute hand on a clock at 10:45; that’s the axis the ball is spinning on).
In the images below (2019 metrics), check out how both Lucchesi’s sinker and cutter generally end up in two different locations despite appearing to be the same pitch, spin-wise. Baseball-nerdy goodness, right?
Mix in that hybrid concoction of a pitch he came up with, and Lucchesi’s repertoire has the potential to be downright dastardly.
In 2019, Joey Fuego’s fabled churve was an absolute weapon, holding hitters to a .183 batting average against, .239 weighted on-base average, .327 slugging percentage against, and a 38.6% whiff rate. Just a nasty pitch.
Under the tutelage of the analytically-minded Mets coaching staff — notably pitching coaches Jeremy Hefner, Jeremy Accardo, and Ricky Meinhold — Lucchesi’s next level could theoretically be there for the unleashing.
And with a clear path at the Mets’ fifth rotation spot and the organizational infrastructure in place to actually develop his talent further, Lucchesi could be arriving in Flushing at a most opportune time.
