The New York Mets have what feels like a herculean task in front of them. They have to figure out how to fix one of the worst bullpens in baseball on an incredibly tight budget. They’re only about $13 million away from the luxury tax threshold. For argument’s sake, let’s say that the Mets will be able to spend all of that $13 million.
They also have to address their fifth starting pitcher dilemma as well, so let’s take $5 million away to pay for that. That should cover the Mets’ signing a pitcher of Wade Miley or Rick Porcello‘s quality. That leaves the Mets’ just about $8 million to fix the bullpen if they make no other moves.
That’s not a lot of money, especially when they need multiple pieces. They have a few spots clearly locked up. Justin Wilson, Seth Lugo, Edwin Diaz, Robert Gsellman, Brad Brach, and Jeurys Familia. That means the Mets will need to fill at least two spots on the major league roster. That’s not accounting for depth of any kind. So, how can the Mets fill those slots on a limited budget with decent players?
Players Who Are Out of Reach
Dellin Betances: The Mets have been connected to Betances a ton this offseason. He’s coming off an injury-plagued 2019, which should bring his price down. He’s also entering his age 32 season, which is around the time injuries tend to become more chronic and players decline. However, Betances has never had a season in which he’s pitched at least five innings and had a FIP of 3.25 or higher. His FIP has only been over 3.00 once in his entire career.
He’s been an elite reliever his entire career. That’s why no matter what the injuries or age concerns are, he’ll end up out of the Mets’ price range. Betances is expected to garner a contract in the $7-9 million range. Considering the Mets’ limited budget of just $8 million for two relievers Betances is clearly out of reach.
Will Harris: Harris is the best reliever left on the market. He was elite in 2019 and has been elite since 2013. Since 2013, Harris has only had one season with a FIP of 3.25 or higher. Unlike Betances, the Mets and Harris have not been connected yet, and they likely won’t be. Harris is projected to get a multi-year deal in the range of $9-10 million AAV.
The one thing that Harris has working against him is his age. He’s going to be 36 in August, which means teams are buying his age 35 ad 36 seasons. That means he could fall off a cliff at any moment. He’s already shown glimpses of that in the playoffs. Harris had a 4.50 ERA, allowed 4.5 HR/9, and his K/9 dropped substantially. If teams are worried about age Harris’ price could drop, but don’t expect it.
Affordable Major League Deals
Daniel Hudson: The Mets’ have been connected to Daniel Hudson this offseason already. They were in talks with him last offseason before he eventually signed a minor league deal with the Blue Jays. Coming off an excellent 2019, Hudson’s price should be substantially higher. However, he likely won’t be in the same range as Harris and Betances. He could likely be had in the $4-5 million AAV range. However, unlike Kevin Gausman, Hudson will almost certainly require a multi-year deal.
Prior to last season, Hudson has been a mostly reliable middle reliever, but nothing more. He offers considerable upside as he showed with the Nationals, but he also comes with major risk. Hudson had a FIP of 4.38 and 4.34 in each of the two seasons prior. Last season was the first time Hudson has had an ERA under 3.85 since 2010. Hudson would be a gamble on a great season, but considering who else is in the Mets’ bullpen, even if he reverts to a solid middle reliever he would be a welcome addition.
Collin McHugh: Like many of the Mets’ acquisitions this offseason McHugh has prior connections to the Mets. McHugh was drafted by current Mets’ executive Omar Minaya in 2008. He played for the team in 2012 and 2013 before they waived him. During that time he was teammates with current Mets’ pitching coach Jeremy Hefner. Since 2014 he’s been with the Houston Astros, it’s there that he played with current Mets’ manager Carlos Beltran. All of those connections should make McHugh a comfortable target for the Mets.
He should also come on a reasonable contract considering his down year in 2019. McHugh moved into the bullpen full-time in 2018 for the Astros to great success. He had a 1.99 ERA and 2.72 FIP playing a role similar to one Seth Lugo played for the Mets. That role changed in 2019 when McHugh was asked to be a spot starter and long man, which led to some injury issues. It also led to a major downturn in his play as McHugh put up a 4.70 ERA and 4.43 FIP in 2019.
McHugh has shown what he’s capable of as a full-time reliever, and the Mets could offer him that role. With McHugh and Lugo in the bullpen, both being extremely successful swingmen, the Mets would have one of the best twosomes in baseball. Lugo and McHugh’s ability to go multiple innings on any given night successfully would be huge for this Mets’ bullpen. That’s worth the likely $4-5 contract McHugh should command.
Steve Cishek: Cishek would be a huge get for the Mets. His age and diminishing stuff should push him into the upper-range of what the Mets could afford. Cishek has been unbelievably good since 2016. He’s had an ERA under 3.00 in each of those years, though his FIP’s were always near a run higher, oftentimes more. His K/9 and BB/9 numbers are both going in the wrong direction. That shows how his stuff is starting to fall.
However, it can’t be denied that he manages to put up elite results despite his poor peripherals every year. He’s the kind of pitcher that most teams in baseball are trying to avoid now. However, that could make his eventual contract a steal. If the Mets are looking to take a shot on a proven, but aging pitcher whose advanced analytics are falling, Cishek is the guy.
Smart Minors Deal Options
Tommy Hunter: The Mets’ were interested in Tommy Hunter in the offseason before the 2018 season, but he wound up going to the Phillies. Hunter was good for the Phillies in 2018 putting up a 3.98 ERA and a 3.63 FIP. However, his K/9 and his WHIP were higher than anyone would like. Then he got hurt in 2019 and missed nearly the entire season. Coming off surgery on his flexor tendon, Hunter will likely have to settle for a minor league deal.
If that’s the case the Mets’ should take a shot. Hunter has proven to be a reliable middle reliever since he moved to the bullpen in 2013. He’s never been elite, but he’s also never had a poor season out of the bullpen. Considering the price he’ll likely be forced to sign at due to his injury, this should be a no-brainer signing if the Mets’ get a chance.
Taijuan Walker: Walker is a former elite prospect who has failed to live up to his hype. He’s never come out of the bullpen, but that shouldn’t stop the Mets form trying. Walker has elite stuff with his slider and splitter being devastating breaking balls. His fastball, which has decreased in velocity due to a number of injuries, should also play up in the bullpen.
The biggest factor with Walker is his injury history. He has never had an injury-free major league season. In 2018 he tore his UCL and needed Tommy John surgery and that forced him to miss the majority of 2018 and 2019.
Instead of forcing Walker back into the rotation where he’s proven he can’t be healthy, a move to the bullpen makes sense. It allows him to throw fewer innings and his stuff would play up. He has the potential to be an elite reliever. It’s not often that players with Walker’s upside could potentially be had on a minor league deal.
