Timing is everything. Matt Harvey is returning to lead the New York Mets rotation, now bolstered with a matured Zack Wheeler and 2014 NL ROY winner Jacob deGrom. All three have experienced their own setbacks this year, but their talent is in another stratosphere and they’ve each grown from their own experiences. There may be a lot of question marks still surrounding the Mets in 2015, but one thing is for certain, Harvey, Wheeler and deGrom will be one of the most formidable front lines in all of baseball.
In three combined individual seasons (Harvey 2013, Wheeler and deGrom 2014), the three right-handers played a total of 39 divisional games, went 16-8 (.667 W%) against the NL East, owned a 2.49 ERA, a 1.10 WHIP and accumulated 286 strikeouts. That strikeout total was good for 10.48 SO/9 innings. Now, I want to be clear, these numbers are comprised using Matt Harvey’s 2013 metrics. For the die-hard analysts, I’ll admit there’s an element of inconsistency by combining his 2013 data with the 2014 data of the other two. But considering that the 2013 version of Harvey is the pitcher most are expecting to retake the mound next season, this analysis is based on that premise. I wanted to see how the Mets stacked up against other teams with Harvey in the rotation.
I placed heavy emphasis on the divisional statistics for two reasons. One, if the goal is the postseason, then we need to play well in our division. Two, the NL East is going to be tough. The Marlins get the return of their ace Jose Fernandez, the Braves recently added Shelby Miller, and the Nationals will return with a similar cast. It’s important the Mets front line sends a message to the NL East.
Harvey is simply an ace in every sense of the word, it’s in his demeanor but more importantly it’s in his top tier performance on the mound. In his 11 divisional games in 2013, he went 5-1, owned a 1.88 ERA and 0.90 WHIP and churned out 11.13 strikeouts per 9 innings. In the 72 innings he pitched against the division, he only gave up one home run and 14 walks. Oddly enough, his toughest opponent that year was Miami, who found a way to get to him early on. Still, he gritted his way through the best and worst of his outings and the Mets will look for him to set that tone again in 2015. He is the undisputed ace of the team.
Jacob deGrom exploded onto the scene late in the season, but still managed to compile 22 starts in his first stint in the majors. He held opposing hitters to a .225 average and posted a 2.69 ERA en route to the Rookie Of The Year award. His 11.61 SO/9 innings against divisional opponents was better than Harvey in 2013 (11.13) and Wheeler in 2014 (9.38). He owned a 1.29 ERA against the NL East at home and even tied the major league record for most strikeouts to start a game with eight against the Miami Marlins on September 15th. Jacob put up numbers that are indicative of a true ace and by all reasonable accounts, should be slotted behind Harvey for the number two spot in the rotation next season.
Zack Wheeler made his case for the best and most consistent starter on the staff this year with his team leading 21 quality starts, although he admits there is a lot of room for improvement. A quality start translates to a 4.50 ERA (6 innings of 3 earned run ball) and Wheeler recognized that far too often, he found himself removed from games because his pitch count was too high. It translated to more stress on an already overworked bullpen.
However, Wheeler still found ways to bear down and win big games for the team, and 21 quality starts is still 21 games you gave your team a shot to win. Wheeler was especially better on the road, where he locked down NL East opponents. Against divisional opponents away from Citi Field, Wheeler owned a 2.69 ERA in 2014, with a 1.18 WHIP and 9.54 SO/9. His complete game shutout against Miami in Marlins Park was brilliant, going nine innings, allowing zero runs and still touching 97 mph on the gun in the final frame. There’s a lot of room for improvement, but it stems from maturity and experience. My bold prediction for the future, keep an eye on Zack, he has a good chance to be the Mets’ most valuable pitcher over the course of his career.
The Mets will be much more competitive against the NL East with those three power arms manning the front of the rotation next season. Having a triad like that, can put a stop to any extended losing streaks or even keep them from starting. The next questions is, does this bode well for the Mets and gets them into the postseason? I found the answer to be yes.
Using xFIP and SIERA (FanGraphs explains both here: xFIP and SIERA) I wanted to see what they could tell me about the Mets’ top three compared to the rest of the league when you add Matt Harvey into the mix. What’s significant about these two statistics is that they’re weighted for such factors as defense and ballpark factors and it makes for a better team by team comparison. Using my own calculations, I determined who the top 3-man rotations of the 2014 season were.
Not surprisingly, I found that of all 30 MLB teams, the ones with the best 1-2-3 punches all made it to the postseason in 2014. Those teams include the Los Angeles Dodgers, Washington Nationals, Detroit Tigers, Oakland A’s and San Francisco Giants.
The Los Angeles Dodgers had the best 3-man rotation, led by NL MVP Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke and Dan Haren. Together as one unit, they put together an outstanding 2014 campaign, compiling an ERA of 2.83 (2nd). More importantly, they ranked 1st in xFIP (2.83) and SIERA (2.90). The Washington Nationals came in second in xFIP (3.17) and SIERA (3.24), but had the best 3-man ERA of 2.74.
In between those two teams are the New York Mets. Combining the most recent single season performance for Harvey, deGrom and Wheeler, their ERA is a dead match with the Dodgers at 2.83. Their xFIP (3.05) and SIERA (3.12) ranks second only to the Dodgers, but ahead of everyone else. Below is the full Top 10 rankings I put together, using xFIP and SIERA as the common evaluators. It was easy for me, since all ten units rank the same in both metrics, which does reaffirm the accuracy of both stats.
Top 10 xFIP / SIERA
- Dodgers: Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke, Dan Haren (2.83/2.90)
- Mets: Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, Zack Wheeler (3.05/3.12)
- Nationals: Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmerman, Doug Fister (3.17/3.24)
- Tigers: Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, David Price (3.36/3.29)
- A’s: Jeff Samardzija, Jason Hammel, Scott Kazmir (3.42/3.41)
- Giants: Madison Bumgarner, Ryan Vogelsong, Tim Hudson (3.51/3.54)
- Mariners: Felix Hernandez, Chris Young, Hisashi Iwakuma (3.53/3.58)
- Reds: Johnny Cueto, Alfredo Simon, Mike Leake (3.58/3.61)
- Braves: Julio Teheran, Aaron Harang, Ervin Santana (3.74/3.83)
- Marlins: Tom Koehler, Henderson Alvarez, Nathan Eovaldi (3.83/3.92)
Just a few things, I included all of David Price’s 2014 as a Tiger, if anything, I wanted the analysis to be tougher on the Mets to see just how good these three were. Same thing goes for Jeff Samardzija, who was originally with the Chicago Cubs to begin the season. The best part of all this for me, was seeing the Mets finish right at the top and above Washington.
The Mets ranked first in SO/9 (9.32), HR/9 (.49), BAA (.223) and FIP (2.74). FIP is the original version of xFIP, but only removes defensive biases and does not account for ballpark factors. Those stats all tell the story of a high octane strikeout machine parked in Flushing and offering little hope to opposing hitters next season.
I’ll conclude with this. Hats off to the Mets organization for their handling of Harvey during his rehabilitation process. Both sides made it through unscathed and Harvey’s final bullpen session in Queens went great, hitting 95 mph on the gun consistently. Preserving the opportunity to add Harvey to deGrom and Wheeler was an important objective for the franchise this season, and by all accounts they did just that. The Mets handled everything brilliantly and this team enters next season with a legitimate shot at contending because of it.
You notice anything in particular about the teams with the top five 3-man rotations, not including the Mets? They all went to the playoffs.
