Free Agent Starter Options For Mets Following Senga’s Injury

On Thursday, New York Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns confirmed Kodai Senga has a moderate right posterior capsule strain in his right shoulder, landing him on the injured list to begin the 2024 season. For the Mets, losing Senga to injury is a significant blow to a starting pitching staff that now lacks a clear front-end option. 

With Senga sidelined, the Mets seem to be taking a measured approach to their next move. Despite the availability of free-agent starting pitchers in the market, Stearns stated that they don’t plan to make a significant move. Per SNY’s Andy Martino, the Mets’ front office is not panicking, but rather are looking to give pitchers such as Tylor Megill a chance to step up. However, it’s worth exploring the available options if the Mets change their strategy. 

Blake Snell

One potential replacement for Senga is Blake Snell, the reigning National League Cy Young Award winner whose stint on the free agent market has dragged on longer than initially expected. Snell’s performance last season, where he led MLB in ERA (2.25) and ERA+ (182), makes him a desirable addition for any pitching-needy club. However, his high asking price and questions about his command may make it tough for him to find a home.

Snell could be a valuable addition to the Mets’ staff if his price drops, though they would likely face stiff competition for his services while also having to pay a 110 percent luxury tax and forfeit draft picks because he has the qualifying offer attached. The Mets know that it doesn’t hurt to have a pitcher who has won multiple Cy Young awards, however, so perhaps Snell materializes into a fit regardless. 

 Jordan Montgomery

The second of the top two pitchers still remaining on the market, Jordan Montgomery is coming off of a standout season with the St. Louis Cardinals and Texas Rangers as he pitched to a 3.20 ERA and 4.3 fWAR, both of which were career highs. During the Rangers’ run to their first World Series championship in franchise history, Montgomery pitched to a 2.90 ERA with 17 strikeouts in 31 postseason innings. He seems like an ideal fit for the Mets, and his familiarity with manager Carlos Mendoza from their time together with the New York Yankees adds another element to a potential pursuit.

Like with Snell, however, the problem with him is his asking price, and the Mets are looking to save money this season. If Montgomery’s price goes down, then he might have a spot in the Mets rotation. He’s a long-shot option for now, though, and the Mets seem unlikely to pursue either Montgomery or Snell.

Rich Hill

At nearly 44-years-old, Rich Hill is still chugging along. 2023 was rough for Hill, however, as he notched a 4.76 ERA in 22 starts for the Pittsburgh Pirates before landing with the San Diego Padres at the trade deadline and posting an 8:23 ERA over 10 games and five starts with the team. He pitched well the year before in Boston, however, finishing with a 4.27 ERA and 1.8 fWAR in 26 starts.

In 2021, he had a stint with the Mets after arriving at the trade deadline from the Tampa Bay Rays and pitched to a 3.84 ERA in 12 starts. If the Mets desire a one-year deal with a wily veteran, a reunion with Hill might not be a bad option. 

Mike Clevinger

Not too long ago, Mike Clevinger was regarded as one of the best pitchers in baseball while pitching for the Cleveland Guardians. From 2017 to 2019, he recorded a 2.96 ERA and a 152 ERA+ with 10.8 fWAR across 74 starts. Since 2020, however, off-the-field issues and Tommy John surgery have derailed him. 

Now, at 33 years old, he’s coming off of a season with the White Sox where he was 9-9 with a 3.77 ERA and threw two complete games. The White Sox placed him on waivers last August, but no team claimed him for a playoff push. Clevinger, who ranked #31 on The Athletic’s top 40 free agents this offseason, may make sense as a depth piece at the back of the Mets’ rotation. 

Jake Odorizzi

Similar to the Mets’ signing of Luis Severino, it may end up being worth taking a flyer on a player like Jake Odorizzi coming off of an injury. He missed the 2023 season with the Texas Rangers after having arthroscopic surgery on his right shoulder last April. His overall career numbers are on par with a number five starter in a rotation, though he is far removed from his career-best campaign in 2019 with the Minnesota Twins. That season, he went 15-7 with a 3.51 ERA in 30 starts. Odorizzi would add further competition alongside pitchers like Megill and Joey Lucchesi as a back-end option for New York. 

Michael Lorenzen

An oft-forgotten-about talent in this offseason’s free agent class, Michael Lorenzen is a prototypical No. 3 or 4 starter that would simultaneously raise both the ceiling and the floor of the Mets’ rotation in 2024. The longtime Cincinnati Reds reliever made the jump to the starting rotation for the Los Angeles Angels in 2022 and enjoyed moderate success to the tune of a 4.24 ERA across 18 starts before inking a one-year deal with the Detroit Tigers prior to last season. There, Lorenzen earned the first All-Star nod of his career after recording a 3.58 ERA over 18 starts before landing with the Philadelphia Phillies at the trade deadline, where he twirled a no-hitter in his second outing with the team prior to struggling down the stretch. 

Lorenzen’s injury history and small sample size as a starter may be scaring some teams away, but gambling on his talent could prove smart for the Mets. His deep arsenal, above-average command and ability to get hitters to chase should all translate as he progresses in his career and continues to acclimate to his new role.

No matter how you slice it, the Mets are in a pickle with Senga’s injury. Senga was going to be both the frontman and the glue that holds this rotation together. It was a unit that was a big question mark even with him, but it became apparent now more than ever with Senga sidelined for an undisclosed amount of time. The Mets could sign somebody, but for now, they are staying in-house.