Tarik Skubal, SP

Position: SP B/T: R/R
Age: 29 (11/20/1996)
2026 Traditional Stats: 12-7, 2.72 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 158.2 IP, 186 SO, 27 BB, 26 GS
2026 Advanced Stats: 155 ERA+, 30.0% K%, 4.4% BB%, 2.94 xERA, 2.51 FIP, 2.70 xFIP, 5.2 fWAR, 4.6 bWAR

Rundown

Coming off back-to-back Cy Young Award seasons and a historic arbitration win, Tarik Skubal entered 2026 ready to win his third award and go on to set even more records in free agency. Things did not go exactly as planned, but also somehow seem to not have changed much. Normally, if a pitcher ended up getting surgery on their elbow to remove bone spurs in their walk year, it is a disaster for them, costing them half the season. This surgery, utilizing nanoscope technology, was not normal. Per Jeff Passan of ESPN, this experimental surgery could halve the return time for bone-chip injuries, and that was the case for Skubal. Somehow he even returned from the surgery and arguably looked better than before he went on the injured list, throwing harder with more swing-and-miss.

March 26 through April 29

  • 2.70 ERA
  • 0.95 WHIP
  • .220 AVG Against
  • 27.1% K Rate
  • 3.6% BB Rate
  • 29.8% Whiff Rate
  • 36.1% Chase Rate
  • 80.1% Zone-Contact Rate
  • 96.5 MPH Average Fastball
  • 15.5% Swinging Strike Rate

June 13 through September 25

  • 2.73 ERA
  • 0.97 WHIP
  • .212 AVG Against
  • 31.1% K Rate
  • 4.6% BB Rate
  • 32.4% Whiff Rate
  • 36.9% Chase Rate
  • 76.3% Zone-Contact Rate
  • 96.9 MPH Average Fastball
  • 17.5% Swinging Strike Rate

Does this alleviate fears around the longevity of that elbow? Maybe, maybe not. Skubal has not been known for his elbow health, undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2016 while in college and flexor tendon surgery in 2022. Any long-term deal probably does build in an expectation of missed time, but any team signing him would hope that happens on the back half and not the front half. So what makes him worth this risk?

Since returning from flexor tendon surgery in 2023, Skubal has been a true ace. He is first in fWAR, WHIP, FIP, K-BB% and second in ERA. He is the pitcher you want going game one in a playoff series, something the Dodgers agreed with when they started him over Yoshinobu Yamamoto in game one of their 2026 playoff run.

Skubal throws the perfect blend of pitches. His 96.8-mile-per-hour four-seam fastball can get hitters out on both sides of the plate, and he can throw it for strikes. He gets good movement on it with 17.1 inches of iVB and 3.2 inches of HB from a 48-degree arm angle. His slider and curveball work well for him going glove side while he tunnels his sinker and changeup well in the other direction. He has incredible command over his pitches and uses both that and stuff to overwhelm hitters.

Contract

Tarik Skubal is a Scott Boras client, and it is likely he will want to break some sort of record. He could look to be the largest pitcher contract in overall dollars beating Yamamoto’s $325 million. He could look to set the pitcher AAV record currently set by Max Scherzer at $43.33 million. He might even look to set the AAV record of any player, currently held by Kyle Tucker at $60 million ($57.195 million net present day value).

Projections are all over the place. Kiley McDaniel of ESPN spoke to 27 industry insiders about their projections, and the average came out to eight years and $355 million. Four of the insiders spoken to projected him at over $400 million, while four projected him at under $300 million. 20 of 27 projected him meeting or exceeding Yamamoto’s contract. Spotrac sets his market value at seven years and $276 million, a number he is likely to look to beat by a large margin.

In recent years, many top player contracts have exceeded expectations. Who saw Juan Soto beating Ohtani’s $700 million and doing it without deferrals? Who saw Kyle Tucker not only beating Soto’s record $51 million AAV but shattering it?

Could Tarik Skubal manage to beat both Yamamoto’s total dollars and Tucker’s with a six-to-eight-year contract at $61 million AAV? Could he eclipse $500 million? Will there be opt outs and heavy deferrals? Will he want to go back to free agency older with the potential of a qualifying offer, if it even still exists? Will he have to choose between term from one team and a short term, high AAV deal with opt outs from another?

These numbers may seem outlandish but so did the previously named contracts before they were signed. Skubal will break some contract record for sure, it just depends on which.

Recommendation: Pay Whatever it Takes

If Skubal has a takedown number that prevents a bidding war, regardless of how insane it may seem, the Mets should pay it. They have the richest owner in sports and players like this rarely hit free agency, especially without a qualifying offer. Even if he wants eight years and $500 million, the response should be “what color pen would you like to sign with?” This is not the type of player you should care about saving 10% compared to the takedown if there is one.

The Mets have time and time again been the second choice in a bidding war. The Mets have not seemed to be good at evaluating where they stand in bidding wars, either with the owner tweeting about white smoke in the Kyle Tucker negotiation and reportedly thinking they lost out on Juan Soto immediately before he chose the Mets.

If they do end up in a bidding war, they should raise the price as fast as possible and go to whatever high AAV line-up with a reasonable term he will sign for, regardless of how ridiculous the number gets. David Stearns has spoken about the type of older starting pitchers he likes to make exceptions for, and this fits exactly the type expected to fit that. The Mets should do everything to get Skubal and blow any offer out of the market. The Mets are unlikely to be the most attractive destination for bidding, or even potentially the second, or the third, etc. But Skubal is a Boras client, and money talks.