Lucas Sims, RP

Position: RP B/T: R/R
Age: 30 (05/10/1994)

2024 Traditional Stats: 58 G, 49 1/3 IP, 4.38 ERA, 1.439 WHIP, 49 SO, 30 BB
2024 Advanced Stats: 101 ERA+, 22.8 K%, 14.0 BB%, 4.34 xERA, 5.23 FIP, 5.33 xFIP, 0.5 bWAR, -0.3 fWAR

Rundown

Lucas Sims was part of the trade that sent Adam Duvall from the Reds to the Braves, and he spent nearly all of his pre-free agency years in Cincinnati. He was solid with the Reds despite pitching in the hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark. Somewhat bizarrely, Sims has posted much better numbers in Cincinnati, recording a remarkable 0.83 ERA in 2024 compared to his 4.38 ERA overall. Over his career, he has logged a 3.16 ERA in Cincinnati, significantly better than his combined 6.19 ERA elsewhere.

Although Sims has been a mainstay in the Reds’ bullpen, his career has been marred by injuries, particularly back issues from 2022 to 2024 and minor elbow problems from 2021 to 2022. These setbacks have limited him to surpassing 50 innings just once, in 2023, when he turned in the best numbers of his career. That year, Sims posted a 3.10 ERA and 151 ERA+ while holding opponents to a measly .163 batting average.

Unfortunately, Sims’ performance tailed off in 2024. Though he was, for the most part, healthy, Sims struggled after a mid-season trade. Through July, he recorded a solid 3.57 ERA in 43 innings, but after being traded to the Red Sox for a minor leaguer, he faltered, pitching to a dismal 6.43 ERA with Boston.

The biggest concern with Sims’ game has always been his ability to limit walks, especially when he doesn’t compensate for his poor control with higher strikeout rates. Most recently, Sims ranked in the first percentile for walk percentage (14%) while placing in the 49th percentile for strikeouts (22.8%). This strikeout rate is alarming, given Sims had previously been well above average in this area, striking out 32.2%, 39%, and 27.9% of opposing batters in 2019, 2021, and 2023 (his past full seasons). Sims remains exceptional at preventing hard contact, ranking among the top relievers in the game with an 85.4 mph average exit velocity. That’s in the 99th percentile — so despite his inflated 4.38 ERA in 2024, Sims still excelled at generating soft contact.

Contract

In 2024, Sims earned $2.85 million in his final arbitration year. Based on his strong performances in recent seasons, he’s due for a raise, though the amount will depend on how optimistic teams are about his ability to bounce back. Additionally, he’s only 31, so a multi-year deal is possible but far from certain.

Of the right-handed relievers who have already signed, Jacob Webb (one-year, $1.25 million), Jonathan Loáisiga (one-year, $5 million), and Jorge López (one-year, $3 million) are comparable players. However, each had quirks that contributed to their lower contracts. Webb had already been non-tendered, Loáisiga pitched only four innings last year, and López is just plain unreliable right now. While Sims is not necessarily superior to these pitchers, his long track record of results suggests he could exceed these deals, either by securing a longer deal with a similar average annual value or negotiating a more lucrative one-year deal.

Recommendation

Sims is a capable pitcher, and if the Mets can sign him on a team-friendly deal, it could be a smart move. If he can improve his strikeout numbers, he can effectively fill a similar role to Phil Maton or Ryne Stanek from last year. However, the Mets should be cautious about committing to a multi-year deal, given his 2024 regression.