Four Mets Players Already Primed to Surpass Their 2020 Performance

The calendar officially flipped from April to May over the weekend, bringing us to month two out of a six-month journey through the regular season as teams eventually try to clinch a playoff spot. The New York Mets have had the definition of “a mixed bag” with regard to their overall results thus far, as an 11-12 record would suggest.

However, they enter Wednesday’s action just 0.5 games out of first place and with an offense that appears to finally be starting to wake up. So there’s that.

In the early going, there have been a handful of players — mostly pitchers — who have already either outperformed or equaled some of their numbers from last year’s shortened season. This exercise is solely looking at their current fWAR and comparing it to what they ended up with once 2020 was officially in the books.

These numbers could dip back below last year’s number (especially the relievers) because of the law of averages, but it’s still fun to look at while the sample sizes are pretty close to one another.

Here are four players who have either already surpassed last year’s fWAR after just 23 games, or are very close to doing so.

Miguel Castro

2020 fWAR: 0.3

2021 fWAR: 0.3

In 24.2 innings out of the bullpen for the Mets last season, Miguel Castro posted a pretty pedestrian 4.01 ERA. But his other statistics and peripherals told a more encouraging story. His xFIP settled in at 3.30, while watching his strikeout rate take a significant leap. Between 2017 and 2020, here’s how his strikeout rate progressed: 13.9%, 15.2%, 22.3%, and 33.0%.

Outside of a rocky appearance on Sunday Night Baseball, that progression has continued through 10 innings this season. He’s posted a 3.60 ERA (with a 1.29 xFIP), along with a 41.9% strikeout rate and a 7.0% walk rate, which would be a new career-high mark for seasons in which he’s thrown 20-plus innings if it can be sustained.

One noticeable thing about Castro’s solid start to 2021 is his changeup usage, which has shot up to 33.7% (career mark of 16.5%). Opposing hitters have posted just a 7 wRC+ against that pitch with a .375 OPS, a 0.0% walk rate, and a 43.8% strikeout rate.

Pete Alonso

2020 fWAR: 0.4

2021 fWAR: 0.6

Although it wasn’t the sophomore season Pete Alonso was hoping for, there were a number of similarities between his NL Rookie of the Year performance in 2019 and what he did in 2020.

While the power wasn’t exactly at the same level, he still slugged 16 homers, which helped lead to a .260 ISO. His walk rate (10.4% in ’19, 10.0% in ’20) and strikeout rate (26.4% in ’19, 25.5% in ’20) were also nearly identical.

Where the difference lied was in his quality of contact. After posting a 42.2% hard-hit rate as a rookie, that number dropped all the way down to 31.8%. It was likely one of the contributors to his BABIP going from .280 as a rookie down to .242 the year after.

Alonso’s walk and strikeout rates are both currently worse than what he did in 2020, but the ultimate results have been much better — he’s slashing .282/.354/.529 with five home runs and 16 RBI, all good for a 142 wRC+.

His hard-hit rate is back up at 43.3% and his average exit velocity has gone from 90.2 mph to 96.6 mph, which has consistently been among the league’s best. This can be partially attributed to his efforts at focusing more on the strike zone — Alonso’s swing rate on strikes has risen from 66.7% to 75.2%, while his chase rate has essentially stayed identical (33.4% in ’20, 33.5% in ’21). And, of course, the tutelage of Diesel Donnie Stevenson.

Aaron Loup

2020 fWAR: 0.2

2021 fWAR: 0.3

Aaron Loup had a very nice year for the Tampa Bay Rays in 25.2 innings last season, posting a 2.52 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, and a .191 batting average against. While he did control contact very well (22.7% soft-hit rate, 24.2% hard-hit rate allowed), his expected ERA (xERA) settled in at 4.16.

Through 6.1 innings as a Met, Loup has yet to allow an earned run and carries an xERA of 1.30. He’s been allowing walks at virtually the same rate as last year, but his strikeout-to-walk rate has shot up to 31.8% thanks to a 36.4% strikeout rate. When opposing hitters are putting the ball in play, it’s a ground ball 66.7% of the time. The southpaw has also generated a 33.3% soft-hit rate and an 8.3% hard-hit rate allowed in the early going.

Loup did lean on his cutter heavily in 2020 (31.1% usage), but he’s currently throwing it at a 38.0% clip, a rise that has pretty much come from a decrease in four-seamer usage (49.9% in ’20, 41.8% in ’21).

J.D. Davis

2020 fWAR: 0.5

2021 fWAR: 0.6

A lot has been made of J.D. Davis‘ defensive adventures over at third base, but he’s at least been able to hit like it’s 2019. Through 229 plate appearances in 2020, he slashed .247/.371/.389 with a 116 wRC+. Through 48 plate appearances in 2021, those numbers have risen to .390/.479/.610 and 200 wRC+, respectively.

That’s a little bit of a jump. One thing that sticks out — you know, other than the .583 BABIP — is the roller coaster ride his ISO is on. After posting a .220 mark in 2019, that number went down to .142. At the moment, it’s all the way back up to .220. Similar to Alonso, Davis has also been attacking pitches in the strike zone more, as his 78.8% swing rate in that situation would be a new single-season career-high mark if he can sustain it.

He’s actually not making a ton of contact within the strike zone (82.0% in ’20, 67.2% in ’21), but when Davis is connecting, he’s making the most of it. A notorious ground-ball hitter, the third baseman currently owns just a 34.6% rate and has paired it with a 34.6% line-drive rate, a 30.8% fly-ball rate, a 3.8% soft-hit rate, and a 46.2% hard-hit rate.

Ironically enough, every sinker Davis has put in play has been a fly ball, and he’s posted a 1.300 OPS with a 238 wRC+ against it so far this season. Even though the offense has shown signs of life the last few days, New York will likely be looking forward to eventually getting Davis back off the injured list as soon as possible.