The Mets are off to one of the best starts in their history. At 13 and 3 they currently possess the best record in baseball. Beyond the euphoria, however, there are questions that inevitably arise from this start. Mets fans can be guarded given their recent history, but at some point the confidence becomes infectious and reciprocal, benefiting both the team and its fans.
Lets not underestimate the impact of that alone — coming into a raucous NY venue can be intimidating. But how does a team that was as uninspired as the 2014 Mets come out gangbusters in 2015 with only a few marginal off-season upgrades? Well, there are two explanations, you could argue that the 2014 Mets weren’t that bad, and you could also caution that the 2015 Mets might not be this good.
At some point, however, the record has to sprout legs and walk on its own and speak for itself. If the Mets can win one more game, they will be 10 games over .500. At that point you can go ahead and ask, are they at least a .500 team going forward? Because at 10 games over, a .500 record the rest of the way gets them to 86 wins putting them in the conversation for a wild-card spot. Should they push it to 4 games over .500 the rest of the way it gets them to 90 wins.
You can’t argue that a run of bad luck will invariably follow because that’s not how regression analyses work … you regress back to a mean (not some karmic over-correction) and In this case, a mean of break even baseball would get the Mets into playoffs. Anything above .500 from here on and we’re talking a possible division title.
Am I worried about a regression? Not really. Why? Because the first assertion above, that the 2014 Mets perhaps weren’t as bad as we thought, is almost certainly true. Their Pythagorean win totals bear this out, their run differential does also. They should have won 3 or 4 more games than they did, which would put them at right around .500. So that was essentially the Mets’ baseline at the conclusion of 2014. Have Cuddyer and Mayberry and a couple of bullpen arms turned them into a powerhouse? In and of themselves no, which normally would warn of impending regression, but I don’t think these upgrades are why this team appears vastly improved.
For years Paul DePodesta has been harping on this “critical mass” term when describing pitching assets. The theory was that if the Mets could accumulate a sizable enough stockpile of quality arms it would inoculate the team from the inevitable losses that occur through injuries, a redoubtable advantage … I think this is precisely what we’re looking at here.
We’ve already witnessed the ascent of multiple front line starters, but consider for a moment that the Mets are in the midst of weathering the loss of their #2 starter, their closer, a valuable lefty specialist, their starting catcher, and their all-star captain. Travis d’Arnaud was hitting in the two hole sporting a .537 SLG and .892 OPS. His replacement Kevin Plawecki in hit the ground running going 2 for 4 with 2 runs scored in his first game. Eric Campbell has hit .278 with a .400 OBP, 7 runs, 3 RBI, and a stolen base, and Jeurys Familia is a perfect 7 for 7 in save opportunities.
The Mets cannot possibly sustain this level of winning, they’d end up with like 130 wins or something, so some regression is inevitable. However, unlike so many easy pre-season picks that went conservative when projecting the Mets, they might be better than people realize because they were really already a .500 team at the end of last season.
Cuddyer, Mayberry, Torres, Gilmartin and Blevins make them better, but 10 wins better three weeks into the season?
What tips the balance is this “critical mass” of talent percolating up from a brimming minor league system. The reason this rebuild took as long as it did is the same reason the Mets have been able to weather an initial rash of injuries, and, it is also behind this 13 and 3 start … pervasive organizational depth. The holy grail of baseball. In a game without guarantees, depth will give you an advantage like nothing else. The ability to plug in better than league average players will give you a better than league average team, it’s that simple.
The Mets, as currently constituted, may not even be sporting their most formidable (or dynamic) roster. Herrera and his 7 straight multi-hit games in Vegas is looking like an upgrade at second. Certainly there’s an argument that between Montero, Matz, and Syndergaard the Mets are looking at some significant upgrades to the back-end of their rotation.
Then there was this from Adam Rubin yesterday on twitter: Text from scout: “Conforto just hit another bomb! Get him out of this league. The kid has been incredible.”
Yes he is still in high A, but for me it’s all about that short smooth swing and the remarkably advanced approach. Conforto is already probably the best hitting prospect in the system. Is he an upgrade over Granderson or Cuddyer? Probably not yet, but I don’t think he’s far off. He certainly held his own in spring training.
As good as the 2015 Mets appear to be right now, this is still just the beginning. Yes the return of Matt Harvey has been the single greatest factor in terms of generating a winning buzz, but the team is only going to continue to get better. As giddy as Mets fans are over this remarkable start, it is, in the end, just that — a start … perhaps the start of something quite significant. The Mets system is stacked with upgrades that will not only serve to free up major league assets in trade, they protect the team from the inevitable attrition of a 162 game slog.
That’s got to be a daunting revelation to the rest of the National League East. For Mets fans who have already watched their team propel itself into the playoff conversation, it may end up amounting to an embarrassment of riches — especially when you consider that gate proceeds may finally support spending increases. A perfect storm of winning essentials … overkill if you will — moneyball with money.
I think Mets fans can stop pinching themselves … the signs are very real, the organization is indeed a pitching powerhouse. The team? This team is definitely for real.
