When the Mets drafted Michael Conforto in the first round of the 2014 draft, it was clear right from the start that he was different from all the other top draft picks by Sandy Alderson. He was an advanced and polished college player out of Oregon State, and he was someone who didn’t have to spend a lot of time developing in the minor leagues.
While the Mets’ front office knew he could advance quickly, nobody could have predicted just how soon he would advance to the major leagues and make a significant impact. However in just over one year since being drafted, Conforto not only made his big league debut, but the youngster thrived and showed off his tremendous offensive potential.
In 56 games with the Mets last season, Conforto batted .270 with 14 doubles, nine home runs, 30 runs scored and 26 RBI. Blessed with a fluid line drive swing with power to all fields, Conforto put up an impressive .506 slugging percentage with a .360 wOBA and 134 wRC+ in 194 plate appearances.
His .841 OPS ranked second on the team behind only Yoenis Cespedes, and his 2.1 fWAR ranked 6th despite playing less than half the season.
Can we be looking at a 6.0 WAR season in 2016? Absolutely, and why I believe that’s possible was the maturity he displayed last season and his ability to adjust to the game as pitchers adjusted to him.
His contributions were one of the most overlooked factors in the Mets’ resurgence during their second half postseason run, but his heroics didn’t stop there. Conforto continued to play great baseball in the postseason and had one of the best games for a rookie in World Series history.
In Game Four against the Royals, Conforto blasted two home runs and became the first rookie to do so since Andruw Jones in the 1996 World Series against the Yankees, and the first Met to do it since Gary Carter in 1986. His first home run was a towering blast into the Pepsi Porch and his next was a rocket over the right field wall.
“He’s going to be a very, very good player,” Terry Collins said after that game. “He’s dangerous, and tonight he showed that. This guy is going to be an outstanding offensive player.”
In 15 total at-bats in the series, he batted .333 with four runs batted in. While his efforts weren’t enough to win the series, he showed that he could compete at this level and even take over a game with an exciting combination of game-breaking offense and his underrated above average defense.
In the field, Conforto not only displayed a powerful and accurate throwing arm, but he also showed off some surprising range and excellent instincts. He finished the year with six outfield assists, a 7.5 UZR and nine defensive runs saved which ranked second on the team to Curtis Granderson.
Conforto, 22, is expected to be in the lineup every day in 2016, even against left-handed pitching, according to manager Terry Collins. Steamer projects him to hit .260 with 22 doubles, 17 homeruns, and 60 RBI in 122 games next season. Way too conservative in my opinion.
Scouts have raved about his polished swing and discipline at the plate for years, but once he arrived, it was the rookie left fielder’s teammates that were doing all the raving. Team captain David Wright described Conforto as the “perfect player” last September. “If you were going to build a ballplayer with the right approach along with the right amount of talent, he’d be the guy,” Wright said.
“Some guys come in here and they’re loud, a lot more talking than they are listening and he’s the opposite. He’s an excellent player, a great person, one of those young guys who gets it.’’
It’s possible that the league adjusts to Conforto next season, but he looks like a player that is very mindful of that and will continue to keep getting better. I won’t be surprised to see him build off this season and hit .290 with 20-25 homeruns and 85+ RBI in 2016. He’s an extremely talented player, and he certainly has the ability to shatter expectations once again.
Let me go out on a limb here and say that there’s a good chance we can see Conforto post a better OPS, OPS+ and wRC+ than Yoenis Cespedes next season. Crazy talk? You just wait and see and remember you read that here first.
