On Monday, the Mets acquired relief pitcher Trevor Gott and starting pitcher Chris Flexen in exchange for left-handed relief pitcher Zach Muckenhirn. Andy Martino subsequently reported that the team intends to designate former Mets’ pitcher Flexen for assignment after agreeing to take on a $4 million portion of his salary. Essentially, the Mets paid $4 million and sent away Muckenhirn to bring in the 30 year-old Gott, who has an additional year of team control beyond this season.
Gott has pitched 29 innings with 32 strikeouts and a 4.03 ERA this season. On the surface level, this move may seem a bit puzzling, as none of these numbers seem impactful enough to warrant taking on Flexen’s contract.
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However, the analytics tell a different story. First, let’s examine the metrics that take fielding out of the ERA equation. Gott has a 3.01 FIP this season, which means that, given neutral defensive factors, his ERA would be a run per inning lower. He also has a 2.99 xERA, which incorporates the Statcast data of the batted balls he allows to calculate their expected outcomes independently of the defense. While these metrics are only speculative, they show that Gott is capable of performing at a higher level with a strong defense and improved luck.
Next, Gott has exhibited great control this season, as he is not walking a lot of batters while missing barrels at an exceptional rate. According to his Baseball Savant page, he is in the 81st percentile for BB% and the 95th percentile for Barrel %. This puts his .365 BABIP into perspective, as it can be concluded that a lot of the hits he has allowed could be attributed to bad luck or poor fielding.
Gott’s splits against certain sides of the plate have been drastic so far. He has produced much better results against right-handed batters. Right-handed batters are hitting a mere .211/.263/.254/.517 against him, as opposed to the left-handed batters who are batting .375/.434/.625/1.059. These mixed results also extend to his home and away splits, as he has a 2.60 ERA at home (in the domed Seattle stadium), and a 6.17 ERA on the road.
This volatility clearly did not deter the Mets from acquiring the right-handed pitcher, but they should definitely be a cause for concern when evaluating how to use him in game situations. Luckily, the Mets have left-handed pitcher Brooks Raley to face any tough left-handed batters in situations where Gott would be largely ineffective.
Overall, this move is not really indicative of the Mets’ mentality going into the trade deadline, as it could be seen in a lot of different ways. However, in the present moment, Gott will provide the Mets with an MLB arm out of the bullpen—one they don’t need to shuttle back and forth from Syracuse—that can ease the load on David Robertson, Adam Ottavino, and the aforementioned Raley in middle- and late-game situations. His team control for next season will also allow the team to see what they have with Gott when evaluating bullpen pieces for 2024.
