According to Ryan Thibodaux (aka @NotMrTibbs on Twitter) currently, three players are on track to make the Hall of Fame with 79 ballots revealed or about 20%.
With 79 ballots revealed/~20.2% known:
Ortiz – 82.3%
Bonds – 78.5%
Clemens – 78.5%
—
Rolen – 72.2%
Schilling – 70.9%
Helton – 58.2%
Wagner – 51.9%
Jones – 50.6%
A-Rod – 49.4%
Sheffield – 45.6%
Ramirez – 43.0%
Kent – 24.1%
Sosa – 21.5%
Abreu/Pettitte – 12.7%
Vizquel – 10.1%— Ryan Thibodaux (@NotMrTibbs) December 28, 2021
The three in are the two most heavily debated candidates and the one player that seems to skirt his steroid allegations.
David Ortiz leads with 82.3% of voters putting him in, while Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens are each at 78.5%.
In order to get inducted, players need 75% of voters to put them on the ballot. Voters are allowed to vote for up to 10 players on the ballot although some choose not to vote for anyone.
Scott Rolen and Curt Schilling are both on the bubble of entry. Both likely deserve to be in Cooperstown based on accolades but Schilling seems to not want to enter after requesting to have his name removed from the 2022 ballot. Obviously, the BBWAA did not accept Schilling’s request.
Billy Wagner‘s case is trending upwards. The former Met closer received 31.7% of the vote in 2020 and now sits at 51.9% of reported ballots. He finished with 46.4% of the votes in 2021. MMO details the case for why we think he should be in the Hall of Fame here.
The writers who revealed ballots that might be more friendly than others who choose not to make their ballots public, which could explain the drastic rise for candidates like Bonds, Clemens, and Rolen.
But in the case of Bonds and Clemens voters could be motivated to get them in since this is their 10th and final year on the ballot. This is also Schilling’s final year. He had the highest amount of votes in 2021 with 71.1%.
It’s the final season for Sammy Sosa as well. With only 21.5% with a fifth of votes in, it would appear he’d have to look for admission by the veteran’s committee in the future.
Some first-timers are making a splash. Ortiz is in his first year as well as Alex Rodriguez. The argument that’s been made for Ortiz over A-Rod is Ortiz was never actually suspended for PEDs like the former Bronx slugger.
The only candidate to lose votes as of now is Omar Vizquel. He finished with 49.1% of the vote in 2021.
Six people have already been selected to enter the Hall of Fame. Bud Fowler and Buck O’Neil were voted in as pioneers/executives on the early baseball era committee. The golden days era committee voted in Jim Kaat, Minnie Minoso, Tony Oliva, and of course Gil Hodges.
Wagner is the only former Met worth paying attention to this season and if he doesn’t make it this year then there’s always next year when he’ll be joined by Carlos Beltran on the ballot.
