The Mets wrapped up a series win against the Dodgers in the National League Division Series on Thursday night, which earned the team the privilege of matching up against a scary-good Cubs team that won 97 games in the NL Central, the toughest division in baseball. Along the way, the Cubs knocked off the 98-win Pirates in the Wild Card Game followed by knocking off the 100-win Cardinals in the NLDS. So to say that the Cubs are a worthy adversary would be an understatement.
In order to get a better idea of what the Mets are up against, I spoke to a couple smart Cubs fans and bloggers to get their input on a couple of the series’s most burning questions. Thank you to Al Yellon of Bleed Cubbie Blue (@bleedcubbieblue), Tommy of the Full Count Blog (@fullcounttommy) and Gunthe Dabynsky from Cubs Insider(@dabynsky) for giving us the time!
1. Kris Bryant. All that he’s cracked up to be? The rookie put up 6.5 WAR this year and cranked 26 HR, but hit only .150 in the Division Series. How’s he handled the grind of the long season and do you expect him to be a big threat in the NLCS?
Tommy (@fullcounttommy): Kris Bryant is one of those cases where I actually think he has been better than advertised. Yes he will strike out a lot and yes there are definitely ways to get him out (He has struggled with fastballs down and away), but Bryant provides a ton of value even when he is slumping with his walks, baserunning, and defense. He’s gotten over some early season throwing problems to become an easily above average third baseman.
One interesting thing about Bryant this year has been his incredible home/road splits. Bryant has had a 1.037 OPS at home while sporting only a .693 OPS on the road. I have no idea how to explain this, but it’s definitely something to make note of. It has already reared its head in the playoffs already as well. After going 0 for 11 with just 1 walk in the first three road games, he then went 3 for 9 with a home run and a triple in the next two home games.
Do I expect him to be a threat? The answer is always yes. Not only can he change the game with one swing of the bat, but his on base skills allow him to consistently get on in front of guys like Rizzo, Castro and Schwarber.
Dabynsky (@dabynsky): Kris Bryant had one of the better rookie seasons in the past several decades. Using fWAR he is third in the past twenty years and in the top 10 going back to 1980. It was an uneven season though with him really struggling in July, coincidentally timed up with the Cubs team as a whole struggling. Since August 1st he has been hitting a robust .323/.400/.567. Bryant probably has had a few positive bounces given his .446 BABIP in that stretch, but he has really driven the ball well as shown in .244 ISO.
It is always tough to predict what a player might do over a handful of games, but Bryant certainly seems poised to do damage in the upcoming series. One trend that has been well documented is Bryant’s extreme home/road splits this year. It might just be a sample size issue, but Bryant has hit a Herculian 184 wRC+ at home this year. On the road he has been slightly below average hitting a 94 wRC+. Given Citi Field I wouldn’t be surprised if this trend continues with a quiet first two games for Bryant followed by some fireworks at Wrigley.
Al Yellon (@bleedcubbieblue): Bryant had a good start and then a mild slump midseason. He came on strong over the last two months. He hit .323/.400/.567 with 12 HR in 58 games from August 1 through the end of the regular season. The division series numbers are too small of a sample size to make any judgments. He’s made adjustments every time he’s had to. He should be fine in the NLCS.
Analysis (@brianpmangan): Two of the guys made the same observations about Bryant’s home/road splits, so Mets fans should keep a particularly close eye on Bryant’s performance here in the first two games at Citi Field.
2. Do Cubs fans have any concern about the loss of Addison Russell? Or is Javier Baez a capable and ready replacement? Is there any talk about moving Castro back to SS or is he hitting too well at 2B to consider messing with?
Al Yellon (@bleedcubbieblue): Starlin Castro won’t be moving back to shortstop. Javier Baez is a fine-fielding shortstop (occasionally makes errors on plays you’d think are routine, but in general he’s got the best arm of any Cubs infielder) who can occasionally hit for power as you saw against the Cardinals. We’ll miss Russell’s glove, but the position is in capable hands with Baez.
Tommy (@fullcounttommy): There is concern, but I think that this is one of the losses that the Cubs were better suited to handle. Baez isn’t quite as steady with the glove, but has a better arm and a bit more propensity to make the flashy play. The bat is probably close to a wash as well, with Baez more likely to strike out, but also more likely to come up with the crushing blow (See Lackey, John).
I think the bigger hit here is not in the starting lineup, but rather on the bench. Having Baez on the bench allowed the Cubs a huge amount of flexibility, especially when it came to late inning defense. The downgrade from Baez to Jonathan Herrera (If he’s the replacement) is a large one. I for one don’t think the Cubs will miss much in terms of everyday production in the lineup, but Joe Maddon’s in game flexibility definitely took a hit with the loss of Russell.
Dabynsky (@dabynsky): Addison Russell’s lose hurts the Cubs twofold. One is defensively. Russell was the best defensive shortstop the Cubs have had in years. Javier Baez is going to take over at shortstop through the series with Starlin Castro as the primary backup. Baez is not a butcher and is capable of making spectacular plays as well. But the odds of a mistake are significantly higher with either Baez or Castro manning shortstop.
The real huge blow though comes to the great depth the Cubs have in their lineup. Javier Baez was a weapon both offensively and defensively off of the bench that is now pressed into starting lineup. The Cubs are likely to carry an extra arm which means that Maddon’s options for pinch hitting are going to be reduced, and that was the Cubs biggest power threat off the bench. Maddon has been extremely creative using his more versatily position players like Kris Bryant, Chris Coghlan, and Kyle Schwarber. The list goes on and on. Russell’s loss probably means you will see more double switches and musical chairs played in game to get the matchups Maddon wants.
Analysis (@brianpmangan): Again, both guys separately touch on a lot of the same points. Obviously, the Cubs are fortunate that their loss has come from an area of strength, but it will be interesting to see who gets the primary pinch-hitting duties late in games now and if Maddon gets creative.
3. We all now Jake Arrieta is great, but how much confidence do you have in the rest of the rotation? Jon Lester has been very good again, but he’s no Kershaw or Greinke, posting a 3.34 ERA/3.06 FIP this year. Beyond Lester, do you have confidence in Hendricks or Hammel to hold down a Mets offense that’s been the NL’s best in the second half?
Tommy (@fullcounttommy): The Cubs rotation after Arrieta is an interesting one. I for one have the utmost confidence in Jon Lester. Despite a slow start, he had arguably the second best season of his career. In other words, Lester this year has been exactly as advertised. The rotation after that does get a bit dicey.
I am higher on Kyle Hendricks than many in the Cubs universe, but he has seen a pretty stark increase in strikeout rate, while his walk rate has only increased slightly. Jason Hammel is the interesting piece. While I don’t have much confidence in Hammel, I have the utmost confidence in the Cubs bullpen and Joe Maddon’s willingness to have a quick hook. Guys like Travis Wood, Trevor Cahill and Clayton Richard gives the Cubs a ton of flexibility in the pen and has become a huge strength of this team.
Al Yellon (@bleedcubbieblue): Kyle Hendricks had a rough go of it through much of the second half but had two excellent starts at the end of the regular season, including shutting down the Royals offense the last week of the season and throwing six perfect innings against the Brewers.
His NLDS start was a bit shaky, but I have confidence in him. He doesn’t have great velocity, so he will have to locate to be successful. He’s done this in the past, including June 30 against the Mets at Citi Field.
Analysis (@brianpmangan): The Cubs appear to have a big advantage in the bullpen, so if they can get length from Lester and Arrieta, expect Maddon to be aggressive with the bullpen in the Hammel/Hendricks games.
4. Do you think the Mets see Arrieta more than twice?
Tommy (@fullcounttommy): I don’t, I think he goes 2 and 6. If it weren’t Lester set up for game 5 then I could see him going on short rest, but I don’t see much difference between Lester on full rest and Arrieta on short rest.
Al Yellon (@bleedcubbieblue):This one gets a short answer: no.
Analysis (@brianpmangan): GOOD.
5. Official prediction for the series?
Tommy (@fullcounttommy): It might make me a homer, but I think Cubs in 5. I know the games in the regular season don’t matter, but I think the patient Cubs offense will be able to drive up pitch counts on the Mets starters and get to the bullpen just like they did earlier in the year. I do think the Mets have a rotation advantage, but I think the Cubs have a large enough edge offensively and in the pen.
Al Yellon (@bleedcubbieblue): The Cubs will win. (Bet you’re not surprised to hear me say that.) I’m real bad at figuring out how many games a postseason series will go, so let’s just say I think the Cubs top two starters will shut down the Mets offense enough for the Cubs to take the series.
Answer (@brianpmangan): I’m taking the Mets in 6. Love the Cubbies but I think they just don’t stack up offensively with the Mets second-half offense that included Conforto and Cespedes. Arrieta and Lester are both world-class, but I think the Mets manhandling of Brett Anderson last week showed people that this offense was still for real. And the pitching, well, the Cubs will be facing an ace every day.
