The Mets tried to sign Yoshinubo Yamamoto, offering him $325 million to come to Queens. He chose the Los Angeles and the Dodgers for the same amount of money. Without him, the Mets have two good starters in Kodai Senga and Jose Quintana and a whole bunch of question marks after that, including Luis Severino, Adrian Houser, David Peterson (when he comes back in May/June), Tylor Megill, Joey Lucchesi, and a bunch of upper-level minor league prospects (Mike Vasil, Christian Scott, etc.).
So what should the Mets do to fill out their rotation in free agency? Sign a high-end starter like Blake Snell or Jordan Montgomery, or focus on short-term deals with lesser-quality arms?
Mike and I debate.
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Sign Blake Snell or Jordan Montgomery
The best argument for signing Snell or Montgomery is what you were shown above –the Mets’ current rotation. After Senga, they clearly need a No. 2 and should get another starter as well. And after the 2024 season, the rotation is Senga and a bunch of question marks with Quintana, Houser, and Severino all becoming free agents.
I’m fully aware that I’m in the minority on this one –I saw the reactions to our latest MMO Weekly Episode— but I still believe that David Stearns should be in the market for Blake Snell or Jordan Montgomery. If the market for both gets out of hand, then he obviously would have to pivot.
First off, it certainly feels like Snell is being underrated by a portion of the Mets fan base. Sure, he walks folks more than you would like to see, though he still has a career 3.20 ERA, two Cy Young Awards, and 12 games of solid postseason (3.33 ERA) experience.
That said, I know the fact that Snell got the qualifying offer, thus costing the Mets their second-and fifth-highest selections in the 2024 draft and $1 million from its international bonus pool for the upcoming signing period, is a concern and surely something Stearns is mulling (mulled, given reports the Mets aren’t in on Snell/Montgomery).
Montgomery is the better fit of the two for me; he doesn’t have the qualifying offer connected and has experience pitching in New York. Montgomery has a 3.48 ERA in 94 starts (tied for 6th in MLB during span) over the last three seasons. Albeit in a smaller sample than Snell, Montgomery has pitched to a 2.63 ERA in eight playoff appearances, including during the Rangers’ championship run this season.
The reported asking price, five-years, $150 million projected by MLB Trade Rumors, has folks understandably nervous. And while five year deals to 31-year-old pitchers are less than ideal, the typical age for pitchers to hit free agency is 30/31 and the crop for next offseason isn’t any different. The only outlier is Shane Bieber at 29 years old, though he’s coming off a below-standard 2023 season.
As for the 2024 starting pitcher market, we need to talk about the fact that multiples at the top of the market will get the qualifying offer. And after the top of the market next year, the next tiers are not strong. Also, as mentioned above, the Mets have only one signed starter for next year, so they will be in the market whether they sign Snell/Montgomery or not.
Lastly, on the long-winded answer that I see is much longer than Patrick’s, haha, while I/ believe the next tier after top-end starters is probably better this offseason, the Mets need two more starters this offseason and potentially four –depending on the development of prospects — next offseason. Signing Montgomery and one of Lucas Giolito/Shōta Imanaga/etc. this offseason makes the Mets rotation good in 2024 and doesn’t break the bank, so they can go after one of the big arms next offseason if they chose.
Focus on Short-Term Deals
Once the Mets decided to sell at the 2023 trade deadline, the plan for 2024 was clear: a soft reset. However, unless you could get a young generational talent like Yoshinobu Yamamoto. But if you can’t sign him, that doesn’t mean you take that money and spend it on guys like Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery. Yamamoto is an exception to the 2024 plan because you see a future with him on your team in 2030. That’s not the case with Snell and Montgomery.
So, to fill their rotation, the Mets (read: Steve Cohen) should let David Stearns do his thing. The team’s pitching lab is fully up and running, and one of the best executives at finding value is leading the front office. It might not end up as exciting or headline-grabbing as Yamamoto or Snell, but the Mets should focus on starters who could be 70% as effective as a Yamamoto for 70% of the price. Bounceback candidates, analytics darlings that may just need a better defense and pitch profile. Find them and see what they can bring to the 2024 squad.
Then, in 2025, your top prospects are closer to making an MLB impact and guys like Juan Soto, Max Fried, Walker Buehler, and Corbin Burnes are on the market. At this point in 2024 free agency, I’d rather wait for big free-agent acquisitions until that class. (We polled Twitter, and the voters are overwhelmingly on my side, too. I know that sentence only means so much.)
