On August 1st, Lucas Duda was batting .263. He had driven in 61 runs and had 20 home runs under his belt. Since that date, his numbers have slipped drastically. This morning he wakes up to a .248 batting average and has added 7 more home runs. The numbers tell the story of an emerging slugger at first base. The eye test tells a slightly different tale.
Since Duda went on his home run rampage on the west coast, he hasn’t been the same guy. Instead of a feared slugger, he’s been an average hitter in the middle of a very average lineup. Over that stretch, from August 1st through today, Duda is hitting just .211. It seems like he’s coming up time after time in big spots and just isn’t getting it done.
The question is, can we trust Duda heading into the 2015 season?
In order to win in 2015, most fans agree that Sandy Alderson must add a left fielder and a shortstop. Neither position has been filled internally and it seems as if the free agent crop is weak at best. This leaves the door open for a trade, likely involving the abundance of pitching talent. Questions surrounding Duda create yet another hole heading into a key season.
If you trust that Duda will hit 30 home runs in 2015 then you have nothing to worry about. While Ike Davis was slowed down by Valley Fever, it’s easy to draw comparisons between his 2012 season and Duda’s 2014 campaign. Both hit below .250, both will strikeout around 140 times and both challenged the 30 home run mark. Davis ended up smashing 32 while Duda sits at 27. In 2013, Davis slipped off the charts, hitting just 9 home runs in 103 games.
One statistic that works in Duda’s favor is his at bats per home run. Duda ranks 12th in Major League Baseball, sandwiched between Chris Davis and Adam Dunn, in at bats per home run. He hits a home run every 17.6 at bats, an impressive number by any measure.
Another thing that you love about Duda is his on base percentage. Alderson loves guys that can get on base and Duda does it better than any Met. His .349 OBP is 42nd in Major League Baseball, largely because of the incredible plate discipline he has showed this year. He’s walking a ton and by some accounts has become too patient. Keith Hernandez often points this out during Mets telecasts.
So now I turn the question to you. Do you trust Lucas Duda going forward? Is first base a position that Sandy Alderson has to look at heading into 2015, or are you confident handing the job to The Dude?
