As of the time we publish this (Tuesday afternoon ahead of the Subway Series), the Mets are still not thinking of themselves as sellers. Andy Martino reported the team is “not yet open f0r business” and that the Mets have “never been eager to sell, and will probably wait for a moment when that becomes absolutely necessary.” That means waiting until Monday or next Tuesday’s trade deadline.

The next six games against the New York Yankees and Washington Nationals will determine that direction. A winning record will likely nudge them toward buying, a losing record making them take calls on the likes of David Robertson, Tommy Pham, Mark Canha, and others.

The Mets currently stand at 46-53. They’re seven games back of the last Wild Card spot. Here are what the standings look like:

  • Cincinnati Reds 55-47 (+0.5 games)
  • Arizona Diamondbacks 54-47
  • Miami Marlins 55-47

—

  • San Francisco Giants 55-47
  • Philadelphia Phillies 53-47 (0.5 games back)
  • Chicago Cubs 48-51 (5 games back)
  • San Diego Padres 48-53 (6 games back)
  • New York Mets 46-53 (7 games back)

That is a lot of damn teams in front of the Mets, and there’s currently a logjam of five teams within a game of each other for three spots. Then there are two others team—the Cubs and Padres—the Mets need to leapfrog.

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Schedule the Rest of the Way

Of these eight teams in the Wild Card mix, the Mets have the second-toughest strength of schedule remaining (eighth overall), highlighted by games against the Braves, Orioles, and Rangers. (The Marlins have the toughest schedule remaining.) The other six teams rank somewhere between ninth and 22nd with remaining strength of schedule.

The other problem is, the Mets only have three games—all against the Cubs— against the teams ahead of them from now until September 11. It’s a little tough to control your own destiny when you aren’t playing the teams you need to lose.

The plus, though? Each of the Mets final 20 games are against the Diamondbacks, Reds, Marlins, and Phillies. If the Mets haven’t been able to jump past either of these teams in the standings by then, they’ll be able to control their own fate by then.

What are the Odds The Mets Make the Playoffs?

Of the eight teams in the NL Wild Card mix, Fangraphs puts the Mets’ chances of making the playoffs at 16.2%. That’s less odds than everyone else in the hunt outside of the Cubs.

But practically, what the the chances the Mets are able to close a seven-game gap and jump five other teams? Given they have 23 of their remaining 62 games against the teams they need to leapfrog, there’s a chance.

But all of this comes down to: the Mets’ current players need to play better. That’s what it’s been all season. Max Scherzer, Pete Alonso, Jeff McNeil, Justin Verlander, and others are certainly capable of heating up and going on a tear—all at the same time. It just… hasn’t happened. And they’re running out of time to make you think they will.