Mandatory Credit: Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports
It took a little while, but New York Mets fans can smile again. Not because the job is done, but some pretty cool stuff has happened over the last week.
Sure, MLB’s labor dispute puts a damper on things, but it’s hard to forget the $250-plus million New York has spent to upgrade the squad. While signing Max Scherzer grabs most of the headlines, the lineup has gotten a boost with Eduardo Escobar, Mark Canha, and Starling Marte.
What excites me the most here, though, is Marte. One has to think that Pete Alonso is also jacked up about the prospect of having a player like Marte hitting in front of him on a daily basis.
Alonso is already the proud owner of the Mets’ single-season home run record with 53 dingers in 2019. What can potentially get overlooked, though, is the 120 RBI he also accumulated over that time. This tied Robin Ventura‘s 1999 production for the second-highest number of RBI in a single season by a Mets hitter. He finished just behind Mike Piazza (1999) and David Wright (2008), who are tied at the top with 124 RBI.
Can New York’s first baseman set another single-season franchise record in 2022? With Marte in the fold, the possibility of him challenging that number looks increasingly more likely.
Current Lineup Projection
This is a fun time of year where we can look at multiple kinds of lineups after a squad makes some acquisitions. We won’t know which lineups the Mets will actually employ until next season, but once they actually find a manager to steer this ship, we might have an idea with regard to what it could potentially look like.
For now, we must settle for projections. Roster Resource is usually my go-to, and this is what it looks like:
- Brandon Nimmo
- Starling Marte
- Francisco Lindor
- Pete Alonso
- Robinson Canó
- Mark Canha
- Eduardo Escobar
- James McCann
- Starting pitcher
My biggest issue is the obvious inclusion of Canó (at second base), which is far from a sure thing, and even less so if the Universal Designated Hitter becomes official. But even if we ignore the bottom half of this lineup, the top four looks about as solid as it can be — and that’s with Nimmo and Marte essentially being interchangeable in the top two spots.
Digging Into Some Numbers
Although Nimmo’s season was shortened due to injury in 2021, he still appeared as the Mets’ leadoff hitter more than anyone else, occupying that spot for 76 games. Here were the two most common players used in the first three spots of the batting order last year with the number of games they appeared in that spot (as well as their season-long on-base percentage in parenthesis):
By installing Marte at the top of this lineup, the Mets get a huge hypothetical boost, whether we’re talking about what he did in 2021 or what he’s done throughout his career.
Between the Miami Marlins and Oakland Athletics, Marte posted a career-high .383 on-base percentage last year, which was engineered by a career-high 8.2% walk rate (5.3% average for his career). Even if that OBP is an aberration, the proof is in the pudding for Marte over the span of his career. Since becoming a full-time player in 2013, he’s produced an OBP above .340 six times, and it’s been below .330 just once.
We’re all aware of Nimmo’s on-base prowess, as his .393 OBP since debuting in 2016 is baseball’s sixth-highest mark. And even with a down year overall, Lindor’s walk rate improved for the third straight season, settling in at a career-high 11.1%. This past season was the first time his OBP came in under .330, and his career mark is at .343.
The league average on-base percentage for leadoff hitters this past year was .332, while it was .334 for the second spot, and .344 out of the three-hole. So, needless to say, Alonso will likely have plenty of ducks on the pond when he steps up to the plate next season.
Alonso With Men On Base
When looking at his performance last year, Alonso did quite well while hitting with runners on base, and very good when you compare it to the Mets’ team average in those situations.
With runners on base, New York as a squad slashed .235/.319/.392 with a 96 wRC+. In that same scenario, Alonso slashed .270/.342/.530 with a 132 wRC+. With runners in scoring position, the Mets hit .238/.334/.370 with a 95 wRC+ as a team. Alonso also outperformed those numbers comfortably, hitting .252/.355/.469 with a 118 wRC+.
As noted a few times on these here digital pages, Marte is also an excellent baserunner with a history of stealing bases, which is something the Mets have been lacking in recent years. With him on base a lot and a threat to steal, it’s not outrageous to think Alonso may see a few more fastballs. Since debuting in 2019, the 26-year-old has slashed .270/.390/.643 with a 175 wRC+ against four-seamers.
Alonso has been the Mets’ best and most consistent power source and run producer in recent years. Heck, during a season in which New York’s offense fell flat and disappointed most of the time, he still nearly registered his second 100-RBI effort, finishing with 94.
If he can do that with the way the offense was in 2021, it’s fun to imagine what he could do with Marte, Nimmo, and Lindor all in front of him in the lineup on a daily basis.
