
As we’ve mentioned a number of times in this space, there’s plenty to be optimistic about in 2020 for the New York Mets because of the intriguing core group of players they’ve assembled. When looking at the position players currently on the active roster, the three that appear to be anchors for the rest of the group include Pete Alonso, Jeff McNeil, and Michael Conforto.
Conforto’s 2019 season was a solid one, as he registered at least 30 homers, 90 RBI, and 90 runs scored for the first time in his career. With him being on the big-league roster in some capacity in 2015, though, we already have an idea of what to generally expect from Scooter (although we’re hoping for continued steps forward in his development. Plus, the 3.7 fWAR he just posted was his third straight year of reaching at least 3.0.
The wild cards in this trio — to varying degrees — entering 2019 were Alonso and McNeil. For McNeil, he did have a wonderful half season of play under his belt from his 2018 debut. But with his position on the field a bit up in the air and opposing pitchers having more time to figure him out, who knew what his first full campaign would bring. And while anything could’ve happened for a rookie in Alonso’s situation, there was an inherent amount of pressure on him to perform upon winning a spot on the Opening Day roster.
Fast-forward a few months later and those apparent wild cards ended up being nothing but sure things in 2019. Alonso (4.8) and McNeil (4.6) finished in the top two spots on the Mets’ fWAR leaderboard among qualified position players, with Conforto finishing third.
This type of production marked just the second time three New York position players (who were qualified for the batting title) each produced at least 3.0 fWAR in a single season during the 2010s. The only other occurrence came in 2016 when Yoenis Cespedes (3.7), Asdrubal Cabrera (3.6), and Curtis Granderson (3.1) accomplished the same feat.
Now that the 2020 season is literally on the horizon thanks to a recent calendar turn, we can start looking toward projections to give us an idea of what we can hopefully expect from Mets players. As it currently stands, two projection models are forecasting the trio of Alonso, McNeil, and Conforto to hit this particular benchmark yet again.
ZiPS has both Alonso (4.1) and McNeil (4.0) reaching the 4.0-fWAR plateau, with Conforto (3.8) just barely missing. Steamer Projections are a little more conservative, but everything still checks out with what we’ve been talking about here: Alonso is projected to produce 3.0 fWAR, McNeil is pegged for 3.4, and Conforto comes in at 3.1.
If these three each finish the 2020 with an fWAR number at or higher than 3.0, they’d become just the second set of Mets teammates to accomplish such a feat in consecutive seasons since 2000. The other trio? It shouldn’t be surprising that it includes David Wright, Jose Reyes, and current manager, Carlos Beltran, who did this three straight seasons between 2006 and 2008.

These dudes distinguish themselves a little more because there are three seasons of 4.0-plus fWAR from each of them and two years of 5.0-plus fWAR from each. However, they were all in a different spot of their big-league careers. Beltran was already in his ninth season when this streak started, while Wright (third) and Reyes (fourth) also had a few years under their respective belts by this point.
What’s interesting to note, though, is that when looking back at single-season team performance since 2000 by way of win-loss record, the instances in which three teammates all produced at a high level took place during some of the Mets’ better teams. Sure, 2007 and 2008 are still sore spots for many — myself included — but if we take New York’s win totals from each year since the start of this century, those two disappointing seasons rank near the top.
In fact, the Mets’ 89 wins in 2008 and 88 wins in 2007 are the fourth- and fifth-highest win totals so far this century, with the 87 victories from 2016 and the 86 wins from this past year finishing sixth and seventh, respectively. Having three position players each producing at least 3.0 fWAR obviously isn’t a prerequisite for fielding a team that’s playing meaningful games and contending for the playoffs come September, but it certainly doesn’t hurt.
If Alonso, McNeil, and Conforto can keep this going with the rest of the position players also mostly progressing, then something cool could happen this upcoming year. Combine that with a starting rotation that’s been among the best in baseball the last couple years and an actual rebound from the bullpen, then something extremely cool could happen in 2020.
Nothing happens in the winter, though. Projections are just projections. However, let’s hope that more or less, the projections we’re seeing will end up being pretty accurate by the time Game 162 rolls around.





