Obscured by the the ongoing circus that is Pete Alonso‘s return to Flushing, Nate Lavender put together another flawless appearance striking four of the five batters he faced. While there are many things the front office got wrong this season, one they nailed was the bullpen. Even after trading everyone not named Devin Williams at the deadline, the Mets have continued to get quality from a group of unheralded arms.
The best and most likely to be a mainstay in the 2027 bullpen is Nate Lavender. Across 17 appearances, Lavender has a 1.59 ERA, 11.65 K per 9, .88 WHIP and a 1.22 FIP. The underlying metrics back up his stellar start. Lavender has a 2.19 xERA, 2.34 SIERA and 28.1% K-BB percentage.
What is unique about Lavender is his wind up and ability to hide the ball coupled with his release point. Lavender hides the ball behind his body until the very last moment and then releases the ball by his left ear all the while creating elite extension. (Lavender is in the 94th percentile in pitcher extension.) This arm angle and deception allows him to miss bats in the zone with his fastball despite the fastball only averaging 92.3 MPH. Lavender is striking out 34.4% of batters (tied with Jhoan Duran for 13th in MLB) even though he doesn’t generate a lot of chase (29.4% which is below league average). What makes this all the more impressive is Lavender is doing this by throwing his fastball over 70% of the time.
The combination of extension, windup and ability to spin the baseball creates additional perceived velocity which is reinforced by his Stuff+ numbers. Lavender has a 102 stuff+ number for his fastball because of 18.1 inches of induced vertical break (in layman’s terms- the ball maintains its plain more than the average fastball which gives it the perception it is rising).
While his fastball is the star of the show, his other pitches have serious potential as well. Lavender’s slider (103 Stuff+) and sweeper (106 Stuff+) both have elite metrics and should help Lavender as the league makes adjustments to his fastball.
Entering 2027, the Mets have Devin Williams and a number of question marks in the bullpen. Reed Garrett should figure to play a role as could Kodai Senga, Daniel Duarte and Dedniel Nunez. But Lavender to this point, has separated himself from that pack and should be a lefty the Mets lean on heavily as they look to compete in 2027.
