Bo Bichette by Berto Carlo
Add the 2026 season as a footnote to the Mets’ long fable of unlucky moments and unfortunate seasons.
The year hasn’t gone as planned. And that’s stating the obvious.
Despite high preseason expectations, injuries to the club’s key players and a lack of quality pitching depth contributed to the team’s early-season 12-game losing streak.
The slog, the club’s longest since 2003, effectively erased the team from the NL postseason picture before the season even picked up steam.
There’s a multitude of excuses to blame for this year. They include, in no particular order: the hitting’s fallen apart, the pitching’s fallen apart, the bullpen’s fallen apart, a bird died on Opening Day, David Stearns killed last year’s bromances, and/or Grimace took the year off.
But while the Mets sit in the doldrums of the NL East, with their front office pondering what went wrong and what could be fixed in time for the 2027 season, the answer, believe it or not, is not a drastic one.
The Mets’ hitters are doing well in the aspects of hitting they can control: hitting the ball hard and at good angles.
The Mets’ hitters have chipped in a .319 xwOBA, the ninth-highest mark in the league. In a vacuum, that’s rather good.
Baseball Savant
For those unfamiliar with the above, some terms:
- wOBA assigns each play (think single, double, out) a value equal to the number of runs the event has historically contributed to. For example, in 2026, a single contributed to .89 runs.
- xwOBA estimates that value by using the event’s exit velocity and launch angle to calculate an expected amount of runs, based on historical batted balls.
And while the Mets’ expected wOBA is inside the top ten, their actual wOBA is .306, a difference of 14 points.
A 14-point difference between wOBA and xwOBA suggests some unluckiness. That level of luck hasn’t extended to every team; only the Cardinals have a greater difference between their wOBA and xwOBA.
Their barrel results help explain some of their unluckiness. No other team has produced more barrels that have gone for outs.
It’s not just that the Mets have had bad luck; it’s like a few Etsy witches have had their say.
Baseball Savant
This level of underperformance extends to several key members of their everyday lineup. Overall, 11 Mets have a wOBA lower than their xwOBA (min. 100 at-bats).
No other team has had more this year.
This group of 11 is historic. And not in a good way. Only 12 teams (4%) since 2016 have had more than 11 batters underperform their wOBA.
The group of culprits includes newcomers Marcus Semien and Bichette.
After being acquired for Brandon Nimmo over the offseason, Semien was expected to lock down the keystone this year, but instead, he was approached about loosening the reins on his everyday second base job.
Semien didn’t turn into a pumpkin overnight; rather, multiple factors beyond his control compounded to result in a career-worst campaign.
It’s been an unfortunate season for the 35-year-old. While his .274 wOBA doesn’t pass the sniff test, his .303 xwOBA and .236 BABIP portend better offensive days. BABIP is inherently random, and the law of averages dictates that as Semein’s BABIP creeps up, his production is sure to follow.
Further, Semein’s line drives, traditionally the batted-ball type with the most impactful BBEs, have gone for a .481 wOBA, even though they have been worth a .605 xwOBA.
To add to the drubbing, per PitcherList’s nifty “PLV” metric, Semein’s even faced the best pitchers of his career.
So far, 2026 is a wave the native Californian has been unable to surf.
His fellow infielder, Bichette, hasn’t fared much better.
Bichette’s batted-ball profile is unique. He’s a player from a past generation, one that relies on squeakers and seeing-eye singles to support a high BABIP.
In other words, his production is more controlled by the quality of fielders in front of him than the average hitter. And this year, they’ve been really good, to the tune of nine Outs Above Average.
No other batter has faced a better defense.
Baseball Savant
During Bichette’s at-bats, defenders have turned into two-time Gold Glove winner Nico Hoerner. It takes two to tango, and Bichette’s partner has done him no favors.
Bad luck has infiltrated the franchise at every turn. This year is just another example of a black cat infiltrating the franchise.
Keep the Etsy Witches far away from the club in 2027!
