As the old adage goes, it was all going well until it wasn’t. This applies to the start of Zac Thornton‘s major league career. Thornton struggled for the first time since his major league debut on Saturday against Miami. In the 6-2 loss, Thornton only lasted 4 2/3 innings, giving up four runs (three earned), walking three, and only striking out two batters.
The Mets struggled defensively again, leading to another unearned run. However, while the defense didn’t help him out, it was Thornton’s inability to command the zone that would be his biggest struggle.
Thornton told reporters after the game that he, “Wasn’t in the zone as much as I should have been.” Thornton threw 94 pitches, only 56 of them strikes, walked three batters, and hit another. It was the first time in Thornton’s career he had thrown less than 60% strikes.
To be fair, Thornton was due for a little bit of regression. Overall, entering Saturday, Thornton’s ERA was sitting at 2.43, much more palpable than his 4.55 xERA. Specifically, Thornton’s fastball and cutter were both significantly outperforming their expected metrics as well.
Zac Thornton. (photo via NYM on X)
On another note, for a pitcher who profiles like Thornton does, he needs to have elite command of his arsenal to succeed at a high level.
Entering his start against Miami, Thornton’s average fastball velocity was 92.2 mph, good for the 17th percentile of baseball. His 100 stuff+ rating is exactly league average. He was giving up a lot of hard contact, was not missing bats, and was not getting a lot of strikeouts. However, those are not absolutely necessary to succeed, if and only if, he is not allowing free passes. Something that Thornton had been incredibly successful at was limiting free passes via walks and hitting batters. In a start like Saturday against the Marlins, you can see what happens if he loses control of the zone. His stuff is not currently good enough to dig himself out of a lot of tough situations.
Thornton profiles very similarly to David Peterson. The rookie is a soft-tossing left hander without elite stuff who needs to be an, “old school pitcher,” to succeed. There is plenty of value to being a consistent starter in the back end of the rotation who can get deep into games and give your team a chance to win. However, when things aren’t clicking for Thornton, you are going to see plenty of ugly starts like Peterson had at the end of his Mets tenure.
However, regardless of Thornton’s results Saturday, the path to consistent major league starts is there. Don’t walk people, limit hard contact, and keep the ball on the ground. If he is able to do these at a consistent level, he can be a valuable piece for the Mets moving forward.
