The New York Mets managed to split their four-game weekend series against the Atlanta Braves Monday night, winning 7-6 in 10 innings. The offense did its part with seven runners crossing the plate and 11 hits on the night. While Carson Benge kept the game close and Juan Soto came up clutch in the ninth, the real silver lining was from the arm who threw the final 19 pitches of the game.
Brad Penner-Imagn Images
If you haven’t been paying attention (no one would blame you), the Mets have had some bright spots over the last couple of months. Juan Soto is Juan Soto, and the rookies have continued to show promise. But the star that shone brightest again Monday night was reliever Luke Weaver. It wasn’t the dominant performance Mets fans have come to expect from the right-hander. But like many great pitchers, Weaver gutted it out and put the Mets out on top, lowering his ERA to 1.89. His line on the night: a hit, walk, intentional walk, and one runner scored (the ghost runner).
It’s frightening to imagine where this team would be without the steady hand Weaver has provided over the last two months. While his struggles early on helped put the team in the current deficit, he’s been the best arm in Queens since. Let’s run the numbers:
April: 12 IP, 10 H, 8 ER, 2 HR, 4 BB, 8 SO, 6.00 ERA, 1.167 WHIP
Weaver’s respectable WHIP is a bit misleading since it’s clear a big issue early on was his inability to miss bats and limit hard contact. He was sporting a 6.0 K/9 rate, which is markedly lower than his career 10.0 K/9 rate as a reliever.
May: 12.2 IP, 9 H, 0 ER, 0 HR, 4 BB, 16 SO, 0.00 ERA, 1.03 WHIP
May was a pivotal turning point for Weaver. He rectified his early-season struggles and submitted the kind of month the Mets brass hoped for when he moved boroughs in the offseason.
June: 11.1 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 0 HR, 1 BB, 15 SO, 0.00 ERA, 0.177 WHIP
Since April 30, Weaver has allowed zero earned runs. The double he gave up Monday night was the first hit he’s allowed since June 7 and the first extra-base hit he’s allowed since April 30. The walk was just his third since May 12.
Having a hot streak is part of the game, but when you look under the hood, the former first-rounder out of Florida State is anything but lucky. Weaver’s Savant page is violently red:
- xERA – 95th Percentile in MLB
- xBA – 93rd
- Fastball Velo – 64th
- Avg Exit Velo – 67th
- Chase % – 89th
- Whiff % – 88th
- K% – 90th
- BB% – 80th
- Hard-Hit % – 89th
Although Weaver’s pitch usage hasn’t fluctuated much over the first three months of the season, his velocity has. His four-seam fastball has had a nearly 2 mph (94.4 to 96.3 avg) increase from April to June. While pitchers usually begin to throw harder as the weather warms up, this is a notable uptick. This velocity increase has a domino affect by playing better off of his changeup and cutter making them a much more effective offering with the increased gap in velocity. As a result, the whiff rate on his changeup incresed from 29.4 in April to 32.7 in May to an incredible 54.5 in June. His cutter had just as pronounced of a jump from 14.3 in April, to 45.0 in May, to 38.5 in June.
Whether the Mets ultimately decide to capitalize on Weaver’s value remains to be seen. With another year of team control, he could become the club’s most attractive trade chip when they start to sell.
Regardless of what the future holds for his tenure in Queens, one thing isn’t in doubt: Weaver has become one of the most valuable relievers in baseball.
