Series Preview: Mets Welcome Phillies for Vital Series

The see-saw continues!

After a great series against the Mariners and a poor series against the Nationals, the Mets went into Atlanta and rediscovered the good vibes. On the back of their lineup, New York took two of three games against their bitter rival, the Braves. It was a nice bounce-back for the team, which faltered into old habits during the Washington series.

The momentum for those wins needs to carry over for the Mets, though, as they now welcome the hated Philadelphia Phillies into town. Philadelphia, ahead in the division by seven games, has a chance to put the NL East race to rest. New York, on the other hand, can make it exciting again with some key wins at home.

How do these teams stack up, though? And who will come out on top? For all of those answers, and a few more, follow along as we preview another series for the 2025 New York Mets.

Pitching Matchups

Monday: Kodai Senga (7-5, 2.58 ERA) vs. Cristopher Sánchez (11-4, 2.46 ERA) 

• What looked like a bounce-back season for Kodai Senga has quickly gone sideways. The former ace came crashing back down to earth against the Nationals. Senga gave up six hits, five runs, and four earned runs. He also struck out four batters, but also walked two batters again. To put it simply, Senga was not missing too many bats. He was missing high in the zone, not locating early in counts, and allowed the Washington hitters to square up. Now, the pitcher has to face off against one of the best lineups in baseball. To be successful, Senga must have an upper-level location with his fastball, which will then let him utilize the wide variety of his offspeed pitches. It will be fascinating to see how Senga attacks this start, as the Mets will need him at his best to have a chance to win this game. 
• The Phillies are set to roll out their ace in Cristopher Sánchez. The lefty has been simply dominant this year for Philadelphia; in 25 starts, Sánchez has a run value of 27, tied for eighth-best in baseball. He has also registered very high marks for his strikeout rate, groundball rate, and barrel rate. Essentially, Sánchez is striking out a ton of batters, is inducing weak contact, and is keeping the ball on the ground. The Mets will have their work cut out for them on Monday.

Tuesday: Sean Manaea (1-2, 5.15 ERA) vs. Jesús Luzardo (12-4, 4.10 ERA)

• Sean Manaea, as usual, has been an extremely hot-and-cold pitcher for the Mets. After beginning his latest start against the Nationals with seven strikeouts, the lefty ended up with four earned runs on three hits and a walk. He lost his velocity, his command, and his ability to get batters out once he reached the fifth inning. It has been the same story in the majority of his starts; Manaea starts as a great pitcher, but slams into the wall once reaching a specific point in the game. Against the Phillies, he needs to power through the adversity that has plagued him in 2025. If not, the Mets may be in some big trouble on Tuesday.
• Very similarly to a pitcher from last week’s preview, Jesús Luzardo has been very hot and cold this season. While holding a 4.10 ERA, the lefty has a 27.9% strikeout rate and only a 6.7% barrel rate. However, he is middle of the pack in terms of his walk rate (7.9%) and his 39.5% hard hit rate. For New York to succeed in this one, they have to either generate walks or smoke the pitches they get in the zone.

Wednesday: Nolan McLean (2-0, 1.46 ERA) vs. Taijuan Walker (4-6, 3.44 ERA)

• Is there a new ace in New York? It may be the case with Nolan McLean! In two starts, the rookie is 2-0 with a 1.46 ERA. He is generating ridiculous spin on all of his pitches, causing him to generate a very good strikeout rate of 32.6% in his two starts. I am fascinated to see how McLean fares against a very tough Philadelphia lineup, but based upon what I have seen so far from him and his consistent improvements, I think the rookie should fare well against New York’s NL East rival.
• He has been much better of late, but the Mets need to smoke Taijuan Walker in the final game of this series. The former Met is not throwing hard fastballs, is not missing many bats, and is not striking many batters out. And while he may not have a bad hard-hit rate on the season, the Mets are a perfect team to take advantage of Walker’s other shortcomings. More so than any other game of the series, the Mets need to put up a lot of runs in this one.

The (Other) Main Headline

Rinse and repeat, but this time with a new addition.

After a bit of a lull against the Nationals, the bats came alive in a big way against the Braves. And with the production that is starting to finally become consistent on the hitting side of the game as of late, the starting pitching and bullpen need to provide a solid floor for the lineup.

Ryan Helsley and Reed Garrett, who continue to struggle, need to find a way to get batters out again. Manaea and Senga need to find a way to deliver quality starts and not implode on the mound. As an overall unit, New York must find enough consistent pitching to keep itself afloat in games.

In my eyes, it is the secondary, or other main, headline for the Mets going forward. The lineup will produce the runs, but they cannot always be fighting to survive because of the pitching.

As I said last week, nobody is asking for perfection. But the Mets need to find a way to have more consistent outings, and in truth, more consistency overall. It may be too late for the Mets to cement themselves as a true contender in terms of consistency, but they can still make the playoffs. And, to accomplish that goal, it all starts with the pitching.

Prediction

In their series against the Phillies, I see the Mets losing two of three games. I hope it is a reverse jinx, but I think this will be a tough series for New York to win.

On the pitching side of things, I see Nolan McLean helping the Mets earn their only win of the series. I also think that Kodai Senga will struggle once again, while Sean Manaea will take a slight step forward in his start.

At the plate, Francisco Lindor will have three total hits, while Mark Vientos will homer once again.

After this series, I have the Mets at 70-63 heading into a series with the Miami Marlins.